Fourth Down Data
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NEB

Nebraska

CornhuskersBalanced
Big Ten Conference4-8#65 (+0.86)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

51· COverall
Offense
66· CRating
70· BPer play
64· CConsistency
74· BBig plays
Defense
38· DRating
29· DPer play
32· DConsistency
Situational
68· CRed-zone O
71· BRed-zone D
32· D3rd down O
34· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.111
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.034
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.051
Defensive EPA/play
+0.053
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.8%
Def Success Rate
47.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.002
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.045
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.26

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.15
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.01
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
-0.16
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#65
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#24
recruiting 41 spots higher
21 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Nebraska ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
90th
Opp-adjusted defense
35th
Offensive EPA/play
70th
Defensive EPA/play
29th
Offensive success rate
66th
Explosiveness
75th
Defensive havoc
50th
Points per drive
57th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Oklahoma State2019OA +0.084 / +0.036similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3622Fresno State2019OA -0.044 / -0.036similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3523Ole Miss2017OA +0.034 / -0.091similar: run defense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3474Toledo2018OA +0.098 / -0.100similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, run defense3465Louisville2020OA +0.021 / -0.013similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, pass defense344

2018 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
2vs Colorado28-33L-3.0L62U
3vs Troy19-24L-13.0L55U
4@ Michigan10-56L+18.0L52O
5vs Purdue28-42L+3.5L58.5O
6@ Wisconsin24-41L+18.0W60.5O
7@ Northwestern31-34L+3.0P59O
8vs Minnesota53-28W-4.5W54.5O
9vs Bethune-Cookman45-9W-48.0L--
10@ Ohio State31-36L+17.0W75.5U
11vs Illinois54-35W-17.0W71O
12vs Michigan State9-6W-1.5W48.5U
13@ Iowa28-31L+7.5W52O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5-1
54.5%
O/U Record
7-4
63.6%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
LWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off73thRush Off60thRed Zone Off69th3rd Down Off32thPass Def39thRush Def36thRed Zone Def72th3rd Down Def35th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04064th+0.03836th
Red Zone+0.07869th-0.11272th
Third Down-0.02832th+0.08235th
No Garbage Time+0.03666th+0.04530th
First Half+0.00847th+0.03833th
Second Half+0.07474th+0.03838th
Early Downs+0.03166th+0.05324th
Passing Downs+0.07673th+0.07039th
Standard Downs+0.02360th+0.02136th
Goal to Go+0.16170th+0.01762th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.5%Rush 53.5%
Havoc/Game
14.1
Havoc Rate
18.3%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
16.3
Yards/Game
456.2
Pts/Drive
2.26
3rd Down%
37.2%
3&Out%
18.3%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 12 games — Nebraska vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNebraskaOpponents
Scoring
Points360375
Points / Game30.031.3
First Downs
Total278272
Rushing130114
Passing130129
Penalty1829
Rushing
Attempts464470
Yards2,5082,349
Yards / Carry5.45.0
Yards / Game209.0195.8
Touchdowns2529
Passing
Attempts404425
Completions257238
Completion %63.6%56.0%
Yards2,9662,853
Yards / Attempt7.36.7
Touchdowns1915
Interceptions1111
Passer Rating135.36118.86
Total Offense
Plays868895
Yards5,4745,202
Yards / Play6.35.8
Yards / Game456.2433.5
Punt Returns
Returns1618
Yards150203
Average9.411.3
Touchdowns12
Kickoff Returns
Returns3134
Yards490695
Average15.820.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5758
Yards2,3942,467
Average42.042.5
Interception Returns
Returns1111
Yards1671
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles2822
Lost119
Penalties
Penalties9278
Yards850681
Yards / Game70.856.8
Time of Possession
Per Game27:4432:16
Third Downs
Attempts156176
Conversions5876
Conversion %37.2%43.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2019
Conversions911
Conversion %45.0%57.9%
Red Zone
Trips4455
Scores (TD + FG)3945
Score %88.6%81.8%
Touchdowns2733
TD %61.4%60.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1820
Made1415
Pct77.8%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4141
Made4040
Pct97.6%97.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts45
Made32
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →