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FRES
Fresno State
BulldogsBalancedPac-12 Conference4-8#108 (-9.61)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
20· DOverall
Offense
28· DRating
61· CPer play
72· BConsistency
65· CBig plays
Defense
30· DRating
38· DPer play
33· DConsistency
Situational
47· CRed-zone O
45· CRed-zone D
19· D3rd down O
18· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.044
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.036
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.039
Defensive EPA/play
+0.035
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.7%
Def Success Rate
47.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.004
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.213
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.24
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.19
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.50
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.65
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#108
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#64
recruiting 44 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Fresno State ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense33th
Opp-adjusted defense35th
Offensive EPA/play62th
Defensive EPA/play38th
Offensive success rate76th
Explosiveness66th
Defensive havoc41th
Points per drive54th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Coastal Carolina2019OA -0.000 / -0.063similar: run defense, offensive EPA, passing offense4242Louisiana2023OA +0.073 / -0.059similar: run defense, defensive EPA, havoc rate4133California2023OA -0.024 / -0.003similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3614Ole Miss2017OA +0.034 / -0.091similar: turnover rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA3545Nebraska2018OA +0.111 / -0.034similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA351
2019 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ USC | 23-31 | L | +14.5 | W | 50 | O |
| 2 | vs Minnesota | 35-38 | L | +3.0 | P | 46 | O |
| 4 | vs Sacramento State | 34-20 | W | -24.5 | L | 54.5 | U |
| 5 | @ New Mexico State | 30-17 | W | -20.0 | L | 63.5 | U |
| 7 | @ Air Force | 24-43 | L | +2.5 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 8 | vs UNLV | 56-27 | W | -14.5 | W | 52 | O |
| 9 | vs Colorado State | 31-41 | L | -13.5 | L | 57 | O |
| 10 | @ Hawai'i | 41-38 | W | +3.0 | W | 67 | O |
| 11 | vs Utah State | 35-37 | L | -5.0 | L | 59 | O |
| 12 | @ San Diego State | 7-17 | L | +2.5 | L | 44 | U |
| 13 | vs Nevada | 28-35 | L | -13.0 | L | 52 | O |
| 14 | @ San José State | 16-17 | L | +3.0 | W | 59 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-7-1
36.4%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS1-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-5
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
WLLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.042 | 61th | +0.028 | 36th |
| Red Zone | -0.037 | 48th | +0.010 | 46th |
| Third Down | -0.128 | 19th | +0.176 | 19th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.039 | 61th | +0.035 | 38th |
| First Half | +0.111 | 82th | +0.042 | 34th |
| Second Half | -0.025 | 37th | +0.014 | 45th |
| Early Downs | +0.065 | 75th | -0.003 | 55th |
| Passing Downs | +0.114 | 75th | +0.065 | 34th |
| Standard Downs | +0.007 | 52th | +0.010 | 45th |
| Goal to Go | +0.070 | 64th | -0.091 | 60th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 48.6%Rush 51.4%
Havoc/Game
13.3
Havoc Rate
17.6%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
15.3
Yards/Game
386.0
Pts/Drive
2.24
3rd Down%
37.7%
3&Out%
21.8%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 12 games — Fresno State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Fresno State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 360 | 361 |
| Points / Game | 30.0 | 30.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 232 | 262 |
| Rushing | 87 | 122 |
| Passing | 122 | 121 |
| Penalty | 23 | 19 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 394 | 445 |
| Yards | 1,911 | 1,927 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.9 | 4.3 |
| Yards / Game | 159.3 | 160.6 |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 24 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 373 | 434 |
| Completions | 241 | 268 |
| Completion % | 64.6% | 61.8% |
| Yards | 2,721 | 3,110 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.3 | 7.2 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 20 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 11 |
| Passer Rating | 135.03 | 132.08 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 767 | 879 |
| Yards | 4,632 | 5,037 |
| Yards / Play | 6.0 | 5.7 |
| Yards / Game | 386.0 | 419.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 12 |
| Yards | 120 | 51 |
| Average | 13.3 | 4.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 33 | 37 |
| Yards | 625 | 837 |
| Average | 18.9 | 22.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 52 | 46 |
| Yards | 2,209 | 1,931 |
| Average | 42.5 | 42.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 11 |
| Yards | 165 | 51 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 16 |
| Lost | 7 | 11 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 75 | 78 |
| Yards | 634 | 721 |
| Yards / Game | 52.8 | 60.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:02 | 30:58 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 146 | 171 |
| Conversions | 55 | 72 |
| Conversion % | 37.7% | 42.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 13 | 27 |
| Conversions | 6 | 15 |
| Conversion % | 46.2% | 55.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 54 | 56 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 42 | 45 |
| Score % | 77.8% | 80.4% |
| Touchdowns | 34 | 36 |
| TD % | 63.0% | 64.3% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 17 |
| Made | 12 | 13 |
| Pct | 57.1% | 76.5% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 45 | 43 |
| Made | 44 | 42 |
| Pct | 97.8% | 97.7% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 3 |
| Made | 1 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.