Fourth Down Data
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UL

Louisiana

Ragin' CajunsBalanced
Sun Belt Conference6-7#66 (+0.44)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

51· COverall
Offense
64· CRating
67· CPer play
83· BConsistency
72· BBig plays
Defense
35· DRating
40· CPer play
10· FConsistency
Situational
21· DRed-zone O
33· DRed-zone D
40· C3rd down O
67· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.073
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.059
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.058
Defensive EPA/play
+0.033
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.4%
Def Success Rate
50.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.025
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.020
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.45

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.04
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.26
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.63
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.13
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#66
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#47
market 19 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
model 10 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Louisiana ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
81th
Opp-adjusted defense
26th
Offensive EPA/play
67th
Defensive EPA/play
40th
Offensive success rate
89th
Explosiveness
72th
Defensive havoc
44th
Points per drive
66th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Fresno State2019OA -0.044 / -0.036similar: run defense, defensive EPA, havoc rate4132Coastal Carolina2019OA -0.000 / -0.063similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, defensive success rate4103Arizona State2018OA +0.072 / -0.049similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, offensive EPA3784Tulane2025OA -0.011 / +0.016similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, defensive EPA3735Vanderbilt2018OA +0.122 / -0.036similar: turnover rate, takeaway rate, defensive success rate369

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Northwestern State38-13W-35.0L54.5U
2@ Old Dominion31-38L-6.0L51.5O
3@ UAB41-21W+2.5W60O
4vs Buffalo45-38W-10.0L58O
5@ Minnesota24-35L+11.0P48.5O
6vs Texas State34-30W-2.5W68.5U
8vs Georgia State17-20L-3.0L63U
9@ South Alabama33-20W+10.5W54.5U
10@ Arkansas State17-37L-9.5L60U
11vs Southern Miss31-34L----
12@ Troy24-31L+16.0W47.5O
13vs UL Monroe52-21W-12.5W52.5O
16vs Jacksonville State31-34L+2.5L58.25O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7-1
41.7%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS2-6
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
LLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off30thRush Off86thRed Zone Off21th3rd Down Off41thPass Def45thRush Def27thRed Zone Def33th3rd Down Def68th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05567th+0.04832th
Red Zone-0.12021th+0.04533th
Third Down+0.16041th+0.10468th
No Garbage Time+0.05870th+0.02841th
First Half+0.04159th-0.01361th
Second Half+0.07076th+0.10913th
Early Downs+0.03476th+0.00633th
Passing Downs-0.02830th+0.04445th
Standard Downs+0.09486th+0.05127th
Goal to Go-0.22213th+0.03944th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.9%Rush 56.1%
Havoc/Game
13.5
Havoc Rate
17.8%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
392.4
Pts/Drive
2.45
3rd Down%
40.7%
3&Out%
21.2%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Louisiana vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLouisianaOpponents
Scoring
Points418372
Points / Game32.228.6
First Downs
Total266283
Rushing115143
Passing128121
Penalty2319
Rushing
Attempts469575
Yards2,2842,221
Yards / Carry4.93.9
Yards / Game175.7170.8
Touchdowns2524
Passing
Attempts367387
Completions238238
Completion %64.9%61.5%
Yards2,8172,795
Yards / Attempt7.77.2
Touchdowns2322
Interceptions913
Passer Rating145.10134.21
Total Offense
Plays836962
Yards5,1015,016
Yards / Play6.15.2
Yards / Game392.4385.8
Punt Returns
Returns178
Yards97-4
Average5.7-0.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4240
Yards934665
Average22.216.6
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5352
Yards2,1942,089
Average41.440.2
Interception Returns
Returns139
Yards14963
Touchdowns30
Fumbles
Fumbles2716
Lost129
Penalties
Penalties7970
Yards632636
Yards / Game48.648.9
Time of Possession
Per Game29:0630:51
Third Downs
Attempts167200
Conversions6889
Conversion %40.7%44.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2031
Conversions1123
Conversion %55.0%74.2%
Red Zone
Trips5258
Scores (TD + FG)4248
Score %80.8%82.8%
Touchdowns3037
TD %57.7%63.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1617
Made1414
Pct87.5%82.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5341
Made5240
Pct98.1%97.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts16
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →