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VAN
Vanderbilt
CommodoresBalancedSoutheastern Conference6-7#72 (+0.34)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
46· COverall
Offense
70· BRating
82· BPer play
61· CConsistency
79· BBig plays
Defense
36· DRating
16· DPer play
4· FConsistency
Situational
17· DRed-zone O
76· BRed-zone D
44· C3rd down O
22· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.122
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.036
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.091
Defensive EPA/play
+0.096
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.9%
Def Success Rate
51.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.005
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.096
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.43
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.36
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.04
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.23
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
-0.08
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#72
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#42
recruiting 30 spots higher
6 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Vanderbilt ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense93th
Opp-adjusted defense34th
Offensive EPA/play83th
Defensive EPA/play17th
Offensive success rate69th
Explosiveness80th
Defensive havoc36th
Points per drive72th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Eastern Michigan2019OA +0.042 / -0.114similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, run defense3882Florida2022OA +0.127 / -0.042similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, takeaway rate3763North Carolina2021OA +0.091 / -0.074similar: run defense, turnover rate, defensive EPA3744Georgia Southern2025OA +0.032 / -0.156similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, offensive success rate3735Louisiana2023OA +0.073 / -0.059similar: takeaway rate, turnover rate, defensive success rate368
2018 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Middle Tennessee | 35-7 | W | -4.0 | L | 56.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Nevada | 41-10 | W | -10.0 | W | 59.5 | U |
| 3 | @ Notre Dame | 17-22 | L | +14.0 | W | 51.5 | U |
| 4 | vs South Carolina | 14-37 | L | +1.5 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Tennessee State | 31-27 | W | -28.0 | L | - | - |
| 6 | @ Georgia | 13-41 | L | +26.0 | L | 56.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Florida | 27-37 | L | +9.5 | L | 51 | O |
| 8 | @ Kentucky | 7-14 | L | +10.5 | W | 45 | U |
| 9 | @ Arkansas | 45-31 | W | -1.0 | W | 51.5 | O |
| 11 | @ Missouri | 28-33 | L | +13.5 | W | 65 | U |
| 12 | vs Ole Miss | 36-29 | W | -3.0 | W | 72.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Tennessee | 38-13 | W | -3.5 | W | 51.5 | U |
| 18 | vs Baylor | 38-45 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
3-8
27.3%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS4-2
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
WWWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.083 | 82th | +0.089 | 16th |
| Red Zone | -0.135 | 17th | -0.139 | 77th |
| Third Down | +0.029 | 45th | +0.194 | 22th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.082 | 81th | +0.094 | 17th |
| First Half | +0.055 | 69th | +0.039 | 33th |
| Second Half | +0.109 | 86th | +0.141 | 8th |
| Early Downs | +0.075 | 83th | +0.053 | 23th |
| Passing Downs | +0.181 | 89th | +0.121 | 19th |
| Standard Downs | +0.037 | 67th | +0.074 | 23th |
| Goal to Go | +0.002 | 40th | -0.211 | 85th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 48.9%Rush 51.1%
Havoc/Game
12.8
Havoc Rate
17.5%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
411.2
Pts/Drive
2.43
3rd Down%
36.8%
3&Out%
18.2%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 13 games — Vanderbilt vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Vanderbilt | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 370 | 346 |
| Points / Game | 28.5 | 26.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 275 | 304 |
| Rushing | 108 | 150 |
| Passing | 137 | 137 |
| Penalty | 30 | 17 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 434 | 510 |
| Yards | 2,178 | 2,531 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Yards / Game | 167.5 | 194.7 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 19 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 416 | 419 |
| Completions | 258 | 257 |
| Completion % | 62.0% | 61.3% |
| Yards | 3,168 | 3,175 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.6 | 7.6 |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 22 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 13 |
| Passer Rating | 142.14 | 136.11 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 850 | 929 |
| Yards | 5,346 | 5,706 |
| Yards / Play | 6.3 | 6.1 |
| Yards / Game | 411.2 | 438.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 16 |
| Yards | 176 | 130 |
| Average | 11.0 | 8.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 33 | 16 |
| Yards | 648 | 381 |
| Average | 19.6 | 23.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 51 | 48 |
| Yards | 2,288 | 2,049 |
| Average | 44.9 | 42.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 6 |
| Yards | 86 | 107 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 20 |
| Lost | 8 | 9 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 72 | 86 |
| Yards | 568 | 706 |
| Yards / Game | 43.7 | 54.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:04 | 28:56 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 163 | 182 |
| Conversions | 60 | 83 |
| Conversion % | 36.8% | 45.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 19 |
| Conversions | 11 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 50.0% | 63.2% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 50 | 54 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 39 | 44 |
| Score % | 78.0% | 81.5% |
| Touchdowns | 30 | 28 |
| TD % | 60.0% | 51.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 28 |
| Made | 13 | 21 |
| Pct | 59.1% | 75.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 47 | 38 |
| Made | 47 | 37 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.4% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 3 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.