Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
UNC

North Carolina

Tar HeelsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference6-7#77 (-0.65)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

42· COverall
Offense
81· BRating
91· A-Per play
75· BConsistency
92· A-Big plays
Defense
21· DRating
11· FPer play
15· DConsistency
Situational
40· CRed-zone O
60· CRed-zone D
93· A3rd down O
34· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.091
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.074
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.124
Defensive EPA/play
+0.117
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.3%
Def Success Rate
48.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.007
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.024
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.77

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.02
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.17
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.33
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.59
own return game
Return Defense
-0.59
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#77
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#32
market 45 higher
Recruiting Rank
#19
recruiting 58 spots higher
30 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where North Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
82th
Opp-adjusted defense
19th
Offensive EPA/play
92th
Defensive EPA/play
11th
Offensive success rate
79th
Explosiveness
93th
Defensive havoc
27th
Points per drive
86th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UCLA2022OA +0.171 / -0.041similar: passing offense, pass defense, takeaway rate4432SMU2017OA +0.140 / -0.078similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, defensive EPA4413Oklahoma State2018OA +0.102 / -0.090similar: passing offense, run defense, defensive EPA4314Baylor2018OA +0.089 / -0.076similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, passing offense3935Oklahoma2017OA +0.313 / -0.052similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, offensive EPA391

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Virginia Tech10-17L----
2vs Georgia State59-17W-24.5W60.5O
3vs Virginia59-39W-3.5W83O
4@ Georgia Tech22-45L-14.0L65O
5vs Duke38-7W-20.0W72.5U
6vs Florida State25-35L-17.5L64.5U
7vs Miami45-42W-7.0L62.5O
9@ Notre Dame34-44L+3.5L62.5O
10vs Wake Forest58-55W+6.5L73.5U
11@ Pittsburgh23-30L----
12vs Wofford34-14W----
13@ NC State30-34L----
18@ South Carolina21-38L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS1-5
Favorite ATS4-5
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off100thRush Off50thRed Zone Off40th3rd Down Off94thPass Def17thRush Def11thRed Zone Def60th3rd Down Def35th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.14095th+0.11810th
Red Zone-0.07940th-0.08460th
Third Down+0.37294th+0.14735th
No Garbage Time+0.11691th+0.10714th
First Half+0.02655th+0.12813th
Second Half+0.249100th+0.10711th
Early Downs-0.01048th+0.10410th
Passing Downs+0.424100th+0.12217th
Standard Downs+0.00450th+0.11611th
Goal to Go-0.27215th+0.12330th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.7%Rush 57.3%
Havoc/Game
12.1
Havoc Rate
16.7%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
18.1
Yards/Game
468.6
Pts/Drive
2.77
3rd Down%
43.3%
3&Out%
16.4%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — North Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorth CarolinaOpponents
Scoring
Points458417
Points / Game35.232.1
First Downs
Total311300
Rushing151134
Passing131132
Penalty2934
Rushing
Attempts512504
Yards2,7682,340
Yards / Carry5.44.6
Yards / Game212.9180.0
Touchdowns3023
Passing
Attempts382385
Completions237234
Completion %62.0%60.8%
Yards3,3243,094
Yards / Attempt8.78.0
Touchdowns2627
Interceptions911
Passer Rating152.88145.71
Total Offense
Plays894889
Yards6,0925,434
Yards / Play6.86.1
Yards / Game468.6418.0
Punt Returns
Returns1521
Yards149222
Average9.910.6
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2016
Yards361310
Average18.119.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4953
Yards2,0472,188
Average41.841.3
Interception Returns
Returns119
Yards71129
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1111
Lost54
Penalties
Penalties9581
Yards900713
Yards / Game69.254.8
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2630:19
Third Downs
Attempts164174
Conversions7173
Conversion %43.3%42.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1917
Conversions1110
Conversion %57.9%58.8%
Red Zone
Trips4951
Scores (TD + FG)4443
Score %89.8%84.3%
Touchdowns2828
TD %57.1%54.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2322
Made1917
Pct82.6%77.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5347
Made5346
Pct100.0%97.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts45
Made34
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →