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Baylor

BearsBalanced
Big 12 Conference7-6#81 (-1.06)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

39· DOverall
Offense
68· CRating
80· BPer play
71· BConsistency
81· BBig plays
Defense
25· DRating
15· DPer play
45· CConsistency
Situational
22· DRed-zone O
57· CRed-zone D
79· B3rd down O
8· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.089
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.076
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.084
Defensive EPA/play
+0.106
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.9%
Def Success Rate
46.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.022
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.007
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.41

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.19
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.18
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.37
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.00
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#81
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#35
recruiting 46 spots higher
9 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Baylor ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
82th
Opp-adjusted defense
22th
Offensive EPA/play
81th
Defensive EPA/play
15th
Offensive success rate
68th
Explosiveness
82th
Defensive havoc
21th
Points per drive
70th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arkansas State2019OA +0.036 / -0.048similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, pass defense3982North Carolina2021OA +0.091 / -0.074similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, passing offense3933Purdue2018OA +0.051 / -0.031similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, pass defense3864Troy2019OA +0.097 / -0.123similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, passing offense3705Oklahoma State2018OA +0.102 / -0.090similar: takeaway rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA366

2018 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Abilene Christian55-27W+4.0W56.5O
2@ UTSA37-20W-17.0P55O
3vs Duke27-40L-2.0L50.5O
4vs Kansas26-7W-7.5W54.5U
5@ Oklahoma33-66L+21.0L69O
6vs Kansas State37-34W-3.5L54O
7@ Texas17-23L+14.0W58.5U
9@ West Virginia14-58L+14.5L67O
10vs Oklahoma State35-31W+6.0W68U
11@ Iowa State14-28L+17.0W51U
12vs TCU9-16L--50.5U
13@ Texas Tech35-24W+6.0W63.5U
18@ Vanderbilt45-38W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-4-1
60.0%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS2-2
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS5-2
Last 5 ATS
LWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off70thRush Off89thRed Zone Off22th3rd Down Off80thPass Def16thRush Def13thRed Zone Def58th3rd Down Def8th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08984th+0.11511th
Red Zone-0.11422th-0.01758th
Third Down+0.20180th+0.3298th
No Garbage Time+0.07379th+0.12512th
First Half-0.01343th+0.13312th
Second Half+0.18598th+0.09420th
Early Downs+0.02965th+0.07717th
Passing Downs+0.07170th+0.13716th
Standard Downs+0.10089th+0.10213th
Goal to Go+0.22080th+0.26620th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.2%Rush 50.8%
Havoc/Game
11.1
Havoc Rate
16.2%
TO Margin
-0.7
Explosive/G
17.5
Yards/Game
459.1
Pts/Drive
2.41
3rd Down%
43.5%
3&Out%
16.6%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 13 games — Baylor vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBaylorOpponents
Scoring
Points384412
Points / Game29.531.7
First Downs
Total331267
Rushing146116
Passing156127
Penalty2924
Rushing
Attempts502440
Yards2,1982,385
Yards / Carry4.45.4
Yards / Game169.1183.5
Touchdowns2525
Passing
Attempts486412
Completions296247
Completion %60.9%60.0%
Yards3,7703,147
Yards / Attempt7.87.6
Touchdowns2225
Interceptions137
Passer Rating135.65140.74
Total Offense
Plays988852
Yards5,9685,532
Yards / Play6.06.5
Yards / Game459.1425.5
Punt Returns
Returns1711
Yards11296
Average6.68.7
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns2927
Yards524580
Average18.121.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5255
Yards2,2112,299
Average42.541.8
Interception Returns
Returns713
Yards37193
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles2210
Lost63
Penalties
Penalties10081
Yards895727
Yards / Game68.855.9
Time of Possession
Per Game32:4127:19
Third Downs
Attempts184177
Conversions8078
Conversion %43.5%44.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2215
Conversions138
Conversion %59.1%53.3%
Red Zone
Trips5536
Scores (TD + FG)4133
Score %74.5%91.7%
Touchdowns3221
TD %58.2%58.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2429
Made1519
Pct62.5%65.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4850
Made4347
Pct89.6%94.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →