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PUR
Purdue
BoilermakersBalancedBig Ten Conference6-7#52 (+2.62)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
61· COverall
Offense
76· BRating
68· CPer play
55· CConsistency
55· CBig plays
Defense
39· DRating
30· DPer play
37· DConsistency
Situational
42· CRed-zone O
77· BRed-zone D
63· C3rd down O
54· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.051
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.031
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.047
Defensive EPA/play
+0.044
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.0%
Def Success Rate
47.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.003
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.033
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.43
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.71
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.70
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.03
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.12
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#52
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#66
model 14 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Purdue ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense70th
Opp-adjusted defense38th
Offensive EPA/play69th
Defensive EPA/play30th
Offensive success rate56th
Explosiveness56th
Defensive havoc8th
Points per drive73th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Baylor2018OA +0.089 / -0.076similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, pass defense3872Arkansas State2019OA +0.036 / -0.048similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, offensive EPA3713South Carolina2018OA +0.092 / -0.024similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, rushing offense3714UCLA2017OA +0.065 / -0.053similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, turnover rate3615Buffalo2017OA +0.003 / -0.072similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, pass defense340
2018 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Northwestern | 27-31 | L | +3.5 | L | 58.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Eastern Michigan | 19-20 | L | -15.0 | L | 50 | U |
| 3 | vs Missouri | 37-40 | L | +5.0 | W | 68 | O |
| 4 | vs Boston College | 30-13 | W | +6.5 | W | 62.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Nebraska | 42-28 | W | -3.5 | W | 58.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Illinois | 46-7 | W | -10.5 | W | 62 | U |
| 8 | vs Ohio State | 49-20 | W | +12.0 | W | 66 | O |
| 9 | @ Michigan State | 13-23 | L | -2.5 | L | 48.5 | U |
| 10 | vs Iowa | 38-36 | W | -1.5 | W | 51.5 | O |
| 11 | @ Minnesota | 10-41 | L | -10.5 | L | 58 | U |
| 12 | vs Wisconsin | 44-47 | L | -3.5 | L | 56 | O |
| 13 | @ Indiana | 28-21 | W | -3.5 | W | 65 | U |
| 18 | @ Auburn | 14-63 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS4-4
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
LWLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.048 | 69th | +0.032 | 37th |
| Red Zone | -0.011 | 42th | -0.142 | 78th |
| Third Down | +0.110 | 64th | +0.012 | 55th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.044 | 70th | +0.038 | 34th |
| First Half | +0.053 | 67th | +0.066 | 24th |
| Second Half | +0.042 | 65th | -0.001 | 50th |
| Early Downs | +0.050 | 72th | +0.064 | 20th |
| Passing Downs | +0.038 | 62th | -0.006 | 55th |
| Standard Downs | +0.052 | 71th | +0.052 | 25th |
| Goal to Go | -0.016 | 36th | -0.188 | 82th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 56.0%Rush 44.0%
Havoc/Game
11.1
Havoc Rate
14.2%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
14.6
Yards/Game
443.9
Pts/Drive
2.43
3rd Down%
38.7%
3&Out%
17.8%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 13 games — Purdue vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Purdue | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 397 | 390 |
| Points / Game | 30.5 | 30.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 284 | 307 |
| Rushing | 97 | 118 |
| Passing | 156 | 163 |
| Penalty | 31 | 26 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 400 | 499 |
| Yards | 1,773 | 2,183 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| Yards / Game | 136.4 | 167.9 |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 25 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 509 | 483 |
| Completions | 333 | 301 |
| Completion % | 65.4% | 62.3% |
| Yards | 3,998 | 3,701 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.9 | 7.7 |
| Touchdowns | 28 | 22 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 11 |
| Passer Rating | 144.45 | 137.16 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 909 | 982 |
| Yards | 5,771 | 5,884 |
| Yards / Play | 6.3 | 6.0 |
| Yards / Game | 443.9 | 452.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 15 |
| Yards | 80 | 82 |
| Average | 5.7 | 5.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 40 | 32 |
| Yards | 737 | 686 |
| Average | 18.4 | 21.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 62 | 65 |
| Yards | 2,642 | 2,599 |
| Average | 42.6 | 40.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 13 |
| Yards | 61 | 99 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 10 |
| Lost | 6 | 3 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 81 | 96 |
| Yards | 837 | 919 |
| Yards / Game | 64.4 | 70.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:39 | 30:21 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 181 | 184 |
| Conversions | 70 | 67 |
| Conversion % | 38.7% | 36.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 25 |
| Conversions | 10 | 14 |
| Conversion % | 52.6% | 56.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 49 | 56 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 45 | 45 |
| Score % | 91.8% | 80.4% |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 31 |
| TD % | 59.2% | 55.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 24 |
| Made | 19 | 17 |
| Pct | 76.0% | 70.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 47 | 46 |
| Made | 44 | 45 |
| Pct | 93.6% | 97.8% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 2 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.