Fourth Down Data
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ILL

Illinois

Fighting IlliniRun-Heavy
Big Ten Conference1-0#66 (+1.28)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

52· COverall
Offense
79· BRating
94· APer play
87· BConsistency
95· ABig plays
Defense
22· DRating
32· DPer play
34· DConsistency
Situational
97· A+Red-zone O
47· CRed-zone D
48· C3rd down O
4· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.061
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.031
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.391
Defensive EPA/play
+0.022
lower = better
Off Success Rate
62.8%
Def Success Rate
45.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
32.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.369
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
4.38

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.22
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.17
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.17
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.31
own return game
Return Defense
-0.09
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Illinois ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
91th
Opp-adjusted defense
27th
Offensive EPA/play
95th
Defensive EPA/play
32th
Offensive success rate
97th
Explosiveness
96th
Defensive havoc
34th
Points per drive
71th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Indiana2026OA +0.042 / -0.063similar: passing offense, turnover rate, havoc rate3372Washington State2024OA +0.048 / -0.028similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, havoc rate3313TCU2022OA +0.134 / +0.023similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, offensive EPA3244Ohio2019OA +0.101 / -0.101similar: havoc rate, run defense, defensive success rate3205Virginia Tech2020OA +0.040 / -0.010similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, defensive EPA316

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs UAB42-23W-27.5L55O
2vs Duke------
3vs Southern Illinois------
4@ Ohio State------
5vs Purdue------
6@ Michigan State------
8vs Oregon------
9@ Maryland------
10vs Nebraska------
11@ UCLA------
12vs Iowa------
13@ Northwestern------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off99thRush Off81thRed Zone Off98th3rd Down Off48thPass Def22thRush Def36thRed Zone Def48th3rd Down Def4th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.39198th+0.10018th
Red Zone+0.91098th-0.10048th
Third Down+0.06748th+0.9054th
No Garbage Time+0.39196th+0.02234th
First Half+0.39196th+0.11521th
Second Half+0.39192th+0.08133th
Early Downs+0.32793th-0.17364th
Passing Downs+1.08999th+0.30322th
Standard Downs+0.18081th-0.01836th
Goal to Go+1.26096th-0.17169th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.5%Rush 60.5%
Havoc/Game
12.0
Havoc Rate
15.2%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
332.0
Pts/Drive
4.38
3rd Down%
50.0%
3&Out%
12.5%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Illinois vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatIllinoisOpponents
Scoring
Points4223
Points / Game42.023.0
First Downs
Total1724
Rushing612
Passing911
Penalty21
Rushing
Attempts2648
Yards150194
Yards / Carry5.84.0
Yards / Game150.0194.0
Touchdowns21
Passing
Attempts1731
Completions1318
Completion %76.5%58.1%
Yards182219
Yards / Attempt10.77.1
Touchdowns31
Interceptions01
Passer Rating224.64121.60
Total Offense
Plays4379
Yards332413
Yards / Play7.75.2
Yards / Game332.0413.0
Punt Returns
Returns11
Yards6519
Average65.019.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns10
Yards310
Average31.0—
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts12
Yards4297
Average42.048.5
Interception Returns
Returns10
Yards590
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles00
Lost00
Penalties
Penalties19
Yards369
Yards / Game3.069.0
Time of Possession
Per Game18:5741:03
Third Downs
Attempts619
Conversions310
Conversion %50.0%52.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts24
Conversions13
Conversion %50.0%75.0%
Red Zone
Trips35
Scores (TD + FG)35
Score %100.0%100.0%
Touchdowns32
TD %100.0%40.0%
Field Goals
Attempts03
Made03
Pct—100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts62
Made62
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →