Fourth Down Data
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NU

Northwestern

WildcatsBalanced
Big Ten Conference1-0
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.021
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.125
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.229
Defensive EPA/play
+0.022
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.1%
Def Success Rate
43.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.207
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.09

Peer Context

Where Northwestern ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
64th
Opp-adjusted defense
3th
Offensive EPA/play
76th
Defensive EPA/play
33th
Offensive success rate
54th
Explosiveness
81th
Defensive havoc
57th
Points per drive
54th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Oregon2026OA +0.017 / -0.041similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, turnover rate3732Baylor2024OA +0.032 / -0.011similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, turnover rate3663Texas2022OA +0.125 / +0.064similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, havoc rate3644Louisville2021OA +0.077 / +0.021similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, passing offense3635TCU2022OA +0.134 / +0.023similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate351

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs South Dakota State34-18W-14.0W49.5O
3vs Colorado------
4@ Indiana------
5vs Penn State------
6vs Ball State------
7@ Michigan State------
8vs Rutgers------
9@ Oregon------
10vs Iowa------
11@ Ohio State------
12@ Minnesota------
13vs Illinois------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.6%Rush 56.4%
Havoc/Game
19.0
Havoc Rate
21.1%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
15.0
Yards/Game
497.0
Pts/Drive
3.09
3rd Down%
41.7%
3&Out%
9.1%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Northwestern vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorthwesternOpponents
Scoring
Points3418
Points / Game34.018.0
First Downs
Total1927
Rushing711
Passing1214
Penalty02
Rushing
Attempts3140
Yards224147
Yards / Carry7.23.7
Yards / Game224.0147.0
Touchdowns31
Passing
Attempts2448
Completions1423
Completion %58.3%47.9%
Yards273285
Yards / Attempt11.45.9
Touchdowns10
Interceptions01
Passer Rating167.6393.63
Total Offense
Plays5588
Yards497432
Yards / Play9.04.9
Yards / Game497.0432.0
Punt Returns
Returns10
Yards50
Average5.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns22
Yards3149
Average15.524.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts53
Yards120119
Average24.039.7
Interception Returns
Returns10
Yards40
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles00
Lost00
Penalties
Penalties96
Yards6145
Yards / Game61.045.0
Time of Possession
Per Game25:5234:08
Third Downs
Attempts1220
Conversions58
Conversion %41.7%40.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts03
Conversions03
Conversion %100.0%
Red Zone
Trips57
Scores (TD + FG)55
Score %100.0%71.4%
Touchdowns31
TD %60.0%14.3%
Field Goals
Attempts25
Made24
Pct100.0%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts40
Made40
Pct100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →