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NU
Northwestern
WildcatsBalancedBig Ten Conference1-0
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.021
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.125
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.229
Defensive EPA/play
+0.022
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.1%
Def Success Rate
43.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.207
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.09
Peer Context
Where Northwestern ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense64th
Opp-adjusted defense3th
Offensive EPA/play76th
Defensive EPA/play33th
Offensive success rate54th
Explosiveness81th
Defensive havoc57th
Points per drive54th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Oregon2026OA +0.017 / -0.041similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, turnover rate3732Baylor2024OA +0.032 / -0.011similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, turnover rate3663Texas2022OA +0.125 / +0.064similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, havoc rate3644Louisville2021OA +0.077 / +0.021similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, passing offense3635TCU2022OA +0.134 / +0.023similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate351
2026 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs South Dakota State | 34-18 | W | -14.0 | W | 49.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Colorado | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | @ Indiana | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5 | vs Penn State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | vs Ball State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7 | @ Michigan State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 8 | vs Rutgers | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 9 | @ Oregon | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 10 | vs Iowa | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | @ Ohio State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | @ Minnesota | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 13 | vs Illinois | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Style & Tendencies
Pass 43.6%Rush 56.4%
Havoc/Game
19.0
Havoc Rate
21.1%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
15.0
Yards/Game
497.0
Pts/Drive
3.09
3rd Down%
41.7%
3&Out%
9.1%
Team Statistics
2026 season totals across 1 games — Northwestern vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Northwestern | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 34 | 18 |
| Points / Game | 34.0 | 18.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 19 | 27 |
| Rushing | 7 | 11 |
| Passing | 12 | 14 |
| Penalty | 0 | 2 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 31 | 40 |
| Yards | 224 | 147 |
| Yards / Carry | 7.2 | 3.7 |
| Yards / Game | 224.0 | 147.0 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 1 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 48 |
| Completions | 14 | 23 |
| Completion % | 58.3% | 47.9% |
| Yards | 273 | 285 |
| Yards / Attempt | 11.4 | 5.9 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions | 0 | 1 |
| Passer Rating | 167.63 | 93.63 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 55 | 88 |
| Yards | 497 | 432 |
| Yards / Play | 9.0 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 497.0 | 432.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 1 | 0 |
| Yards | 5 | 0 |
| Average | 5.0 | — |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 2 | 2 |
| Yards | 31 | 49 |
| Average | 15.5 | 24.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 5 | 3 |
| Yards | 120 | 119 |
| Average | 24.0 | 39.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 1 | 0 |
| Yards | 4 | 0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 0 | 0 |
| Lost | 0 | 0 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 9 | 6 |
| Yards | 61 | 45 |
| Yards / Game | 61.0 | 45.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 25:52 | 34:08 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 12 | 20 |
| Conversions | 5 | 8 |
| Conversion % | 41.7% | 40.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 3 |
| Conversions | 0 | 3 |
| Conversion % | — | 100.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 5 | 7 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 5 | 5 |
| Score % | 100.0% | 71.4% |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 1 |
| TD % | 60.0% | 14.3% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 5 |
| Made | 2 | 4 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 80.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 0 |
| Made | 4 | 0 |
| Pct | 100.0% | — |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.