Fourth Down Data
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TOL

Toledo

RocketsBalanced
Mid-American Conference11-3#54 (+3.63)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

60· COverall
Offense
74· BRating
83· BPer play
93· AConsistency
77· BBig plays
Defense
39· DRating
57· CPer play
52· CConsistency
Situational
19· DRed-zone O
39· DRed-zone D
51· C3rd down O
87· B3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.070
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.010
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.090
Defensive EPA/play
-0.050
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.3%
Def Success Rate
46.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.140
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.290
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.80

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.94
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.01
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.83
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#54
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 21 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Toledo ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
74th
Opp-adjusted defense
48th
Offensive EPA/play
84th
Defensive EPA/play
57th
Offensive success rate
95th
Explosiveness
77th
Defensive havoc
34th
Points per drive
87th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Georgia2018OA +0.139 / +0.111similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, turnover rate4182Memphis2019OA +0.169 / -0.025similar: run defense, passing offense, TD drive rate3833Liberty2020OA +0.052 / +0.010similar: takeaway rate, pass defense, offensive success rate3624TCU2022OA +0.134 / +0.023similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3625Ole Miss2025OA +0.189 / -0.005similar: turnover rate, passing offense, TD drive rate360

2017 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Elon47-13W-6.0L61U
2@ Nevada37-24W-10.5W69.5U
3vs Tulsa54-51W-7.0L74O
4@ Miami30-52L+13.5L60.5O
6vs Eastern Michigan20-15W-13.5L60U
7@ Central Michigan30-10W-9.5W54.5U
8vs Akron48-21W-15.0W58.5O
9@ Ball State58-17W-26.5W55O
10vs Northern Illinois27-17W-7.5W56.5U
11@ Ohio10-38L-3.0L63.5U
12@ Bowling Green66-37W-17.0W66.5O
13vs Western Michigan37-10W-10.5W61.5U
14vs Akron45-28W-20.5L60.5O
17vs App State0-34L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS7-5
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off80thRush Off70thRed Zone Off19th3rd Down Off51thPass Def77thRush Def35thRed Zone Def39th3rd Down Def88th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06678th-0.03856th
Red Zone-0.13619th+0.05839th
Third Down+0.00551th-0.29188th
No Garbage Time+0.09085th-0.06059th
First Half+0.01865th-0.13277th
Second Half+0.12592th+0.04725th
Early Downs+0.09791th+0.02626th
Passing Downs+0.12480th-0.12377th
Standard Downs+0.03870th+0.00535th
Goal to Go-0.16226th+0.05838th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.1%Rush 56.9%
Havoc/Game
11.7
Havoc Rate
16.7%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
15.1
Yards/Game
483.9
Pts/Drive
2.80
3rd Down%
39.1%
3&Out%
13.9%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 14 games — Toledo vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatToledoOpponents
Scoring
Points509367
Points / Game36.426.2
First Downs
Total322284
Rushing133121
Passing166129
Penalty2334
Rushing
Attempts558518
Yards2,8562,490
Yards / Carry5.14.8
Yards / Game204.0177.9
Touchdowns3227
Passing
Attempts423440
Completions267231
Completion %63.1%52.5%
Yards3,9192,900
Yards / Attempt9.36.6
Touchdowns2820
Interceptions915
Passer Rating158.53116.05
Total Offense
Plays981958
Yards6,7755,390
Yards / Play6.95.6
Yards / Game483.9385.0
Punt Returns
Returns284
Yards30514
Average10.93.5
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns4251
Yards8591,020
Average20.520.0
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5477
Yards2,0192,996
Average37.438.9
Interception Returns
Returns159
Yards91169
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles209
Lost105
Penalties
Penalties10675
Yards951711
Yards / Game67.950.8
Time of Possession
Per Game31:3728:23
Third Downs
Attempts179195
Conversions7067
Conversion %39.1%34.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1826
Conversions811
Conversion %44.4%42.3%
Red Zone
Trips6746
Scores (TD + FG)5738
Score %85.1%82.6%
Touchdowns3630
TD %53.7%65.2%
Field Goals
Attempts3117
Made2512
Pct80.6%70.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5946
Made5643
Pct94.9%93.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts31
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →