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LIB
Liberty
FlamesRun-HeavyConference USA10-1#18 (+6.73)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
86· BOverall
Offense
90· A-Rating
90· A-Per play
95· AConsistency
95· ABig plays
Defense
71· BRating
74· BPer play
73· BConsistency
Situational
19· DRed-zone O
13· FRed-zone D
93· A3rd down O
95· A3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.052
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.010
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.176
Defensive EPA/play
-0.052
lower = better
Off Success Rate
53.7%
Def Success Rate
45.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
29.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.228
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.078
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.27
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.30
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.61
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.51
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.48
own return game
Return Defense
-0.08
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#18
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#17
AP 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#37
model 19 higher
Recruiting Rank
#38
model 20 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Liberty ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense91th
Opp-adjusted defense63th
Offensive EPA/play91th
Defensive EPA/play75th
Offensive success rate93th
Explosiveness96th
Defensive havoc56th
Points per drive94th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Toledo2017OA +0.070 / -0.010similar: takeaway rate, pass defense, offensive success rate3622Notre Dame2020OA +0.039 / +0.035similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate3563Louisville2017OA +0.148 / -0.016similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3544Florida2018OA +0.119 / +0.119similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense3545Oklahoma2020OA +0.043 / +0.039similar: turnover rate, pass defense, offensive success rate349
2020 Schedule & Results
11 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | @ Western Kentucky | 30-24 | W | +14.0 | W | 52 | O |
| 4 | vs Florida International | 36-34 | W | -7.5 | L | 59 | O |
| 5 | vs North Alabama | 28-7 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | vs UL Monroe | 40-7 | W | -19.0 | W | 61 | U |
| 7 | @ Syracuse | 38-21 | W | -3.5 | W | 52.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Southern Miss | 56-35 | W | -11.0 | W | 63 | O |
| 10 | @ Virginia Tech | 38-35 | W | +14.5 | W | 67.5 | O |
| 11 | vs Western Carolina | 58-14 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | @ NC State | 14-15 | L | -37.0 | W | 56.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Massachusetts | 45-0 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 17 | @ Coastal Carolina | 37-34 | W | +6.5 | W | 59.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-1
88.9%
O/U Record
6-3
66.7%
Straight Up
10-1
90.9%
Home ATS3-1
Away ATS5-0
Favorite ATS4-1
Underdog ATS4-0
Last 5 ATS
WWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.127 | 88th | -0.027 | 67th |
| Red Zone | -0.128 | 19th | +0.183 | 13th |
| Third Down | +0.457 | 94th | -0.251 | 96th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.176 | 91th | -0.061 | 79th |
| First Half | +0.181 | 89th | -0.113 | 86th |
| Second Half | +0.073 | 67th | +0.067 | 38th |
| Early Downs | +0.018 | 59th | +0.056 | 30th |
| Passing Downs | +0.253 | 91th | -0.120 | 86th |
| Standard Downs | +0.072 | 76th | +0.025 | 48th |
| Goal to Go | -0.391 | 11th | -0.219 | 80th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 38.8%Rush 61.2%
Havoc/Game
12.2
Havoc Rate
19.4%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
18.5
Yards/Game
482.7
Pts/Drive
3.27
3rd Down%
48.3%
3&Out%
9.1%
Team Statistics
2020 season totals across 11 games — Liberty vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Liberty | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 420 | 226 |
| Points / Game | 38.2 | 20.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 274 | 191 |
| Rushing | 149 | 78 |
| Passing | 105 | 94 |
| Penalty | 20 | 19 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 484 | 354 |
| Yards | 2,776 | 1,461 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.7 | 4.1 |
| Yards / Game | 252.4 | 132.8 |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 12 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 307 | 313 |
| Completions | 193 | 180 |
| Completion % | 62.9% | 57.5% |
| Yards | 2,534 | 2,034 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.3 | 6.5 |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 11 |
| Passer Rating | 154.51 | 122.99 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 791 | 667 |
| Yards | 5,310 | 3,495 |
| Yards / Play | 6.7 | 5.2 |
| Yards / Game | 482.7 | 317.7 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 6 |
| Yards | 177 | 39 |
| Average | 11.1 | 6.5 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 47 |
| Yards | 424 | 898 |
| Average | 21.2 | 19.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 26 | 53 |
| Yards | 1,088 | 2,264 |
| Average | 41.8 | 42.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 7 |
| Yards | 127 | 60 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 18 | 13 |
| Lost | 9 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 66 | 85 |
| Yards | 624 | 702 |
| Yards / Game | 56.7 | 63.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:57 | 27:03 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 147 | 140 |
| Conversions | 71 | 45 |
| Conversion % | 48.3% | 32.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 21 |
| Conversions | 17 | 9 |
| Conversion % | 77.3% | 42.9% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 56 | 32 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 43 | 25 |
| Score % | 76.8% | 78.1% |
| Touchdowns | 33 | 22 |
| TD % | 58.9% | 68.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 13 |
| Made | 13 | 5 |
| Pct | 65.0% | 38.5% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 54 | 25 |
| Made | 51 | 25 |
| Pct | 94.4% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 5 |
| Made | 0 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.