Fourth Down Data
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UL

Louisiana

Ragin' CajunsBalanced
Sun Belt Conference10-4#36 (+3.94)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

73· BOverall
Offense
86· BRating
92· A-Per play
89· BConsistency
92· A-Big plays
Defense
38· DRating
31· DPer play
12· FConsistency
Situational
55· CRed-zone O
7· FRed-zone D
73· B3rd down O
43· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.053
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.015
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.142
Defensive EPA/play
+0.031
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.7%
Def Success Rate
49.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.111
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.234
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.91

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.96
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.79
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.06
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.12
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#36
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#30
market 6 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
model 44 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Louisiana ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
90th
Opp-adjusted defense
30th
Offensive EPA/play
93th
Defensive EPA/play
31th
Offensive success rate
84th
Explosiveness
93th
Defensive havoc
24th
Points per drive
94th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Toledo2017OA +0.070 / -0.010similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3602Florida International2018OA +0.106 / -0.062similar: offensive EPA, run defense, rushing offense3583UConn2025OA +0.056 / -0.123similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3414Florida2022OA +0.127 / -0.042similar: run defense, havoc rate, TD drive rate3375Arizona State2018OA +0.072 / -0.049similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate330

2024 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Grambling State40-10W-32.5L58.5U
2@ Kennesaw State34-10W-14.5W46U
4vs Tulane33-41L+2.5L53.5O
5@ Wake Forest41-38W+3.5W60.5O
6@ Southern Miss23-13W-15.5L57.5U
7vs App State34-24W-10.5L64.75U
8@ Coastal Carolina34-24W-4.5W56.5O
10@ Texas State23-17W----
11vs Arkansas State55-19W-16.5W60.5O
12vs South Alabama22-24L-7.0L58U
13vs Troy51-30W-10.5W53.5O
14@ UL Monroe37-23W-9.5W48.5O
15vs Marshall3-31L-5.5L57.5U
18@ TCU3-34L+12.5L58U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-7
50.0%
O/U Record
6-8
42.9%
Straight Up
10-4
71.4%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS5-2
Favorite ATS5-5
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off71thRush Off89thRed Zone Off55th3rd Down Off74thPass Def78thRush Def7thRed Zone Def7th3rd Down Def43th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.11288th+0.04328th
Red Zone+0.03055th+0.3037th
Third Down+0.19874th+0.10443th
No Garbage Time+0.13693th+0.03629th
First Half+0.11184th+0.05525th
Second Half+0.11386th+0.02840th
Early Downs+0.06684th+0.02129th
Passing Downs+0.08971th-0.10478th
Standard Downs+0.12289th+0.1087th
Goal to Go+0.04055th+0.12425th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.0%Rush 54.0%
Havoc/Game
10.4
Havoc Rate
15.7%
TO Margin
+0.7
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
415.1
Pts/Drive
2.91
3rd Down%
42.4%
3&Out%
14.1%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 14 games — Louisiana vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLouisianaOpponents
Scoring
Points433338
Points / Game30.924.1
First Downs
Total290282
Rushing114131
Passing150132
Penalty2619
Rushing
Attempts484477
Yards2,3302,159
Yards / Carry4.84.5
Yards / Game166.4154.2
Touchdowns2620
Passing
Attempts412430
Completions269273
Completion %65.3%63.5%
Yards3,4822,719
Yards / Attempt8.56.3
Touchdowns2219
Interceptions916
Passer Rating149.54123.74
Total Offense
Plays896907
Yards5,8124,878
Yards / Play6.55.4
Yards / Game415.1348.4
Punt Returns
Returns184
Yards9728
Average5.47.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3241
Yards829783
Average25.919.1
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts3655
Yards1,4102,311
Average39.242.0
Interception Returns
Returns169
Yards12257
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles710
Lost25
Penalties
Penalties8275
Yards683647
Yards / Game48.846.2
Time of Possession
Per Game31:1828:42
Third Downs
Attempts170179
Conversions7280
Conversion %42.4%44.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2620
Conversions1615
Conversion %61.5%75.0%
Red Zone
Trips6046
Scores (TD + FG)5546
Score %91.7%100.0%
Touchdowns3633
TD %60.0%71.7%
Field Goals
Attempts3221
Made2917
Pct90.6%81.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4736
Made4635
Pct97.9%97.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts35
Made03
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →