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ARK
Arkansas
RazorbacksRun-HeavySoutheastern Conference9-4#23 (+6.71)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
83· BOverall
Offense
77· BRating
78· BPer play
63· CConsistency
62· CBig plays
Defense
83· BRating
64· CPer play
60· CConsistency
Situational
80· BRed-zone O
92· A-Red-zone D
53· C3rd down O
88· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.129
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.084
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.070
Defensive EPA/play
-0.050
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.1%
Def Success Rate
45.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.120
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.054
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.52
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.35
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.48
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.18
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-0.41
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#23
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#21
AP 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#69
model 46 higher
Recruiting Rank
#29
model 6 spots higher
15 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Arkansas ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense92th
Opp-adjusted defense86th
Offensive EPA/play79th
Defensive EPA/play65th
Offensive success rate57th
Explosiveness62th
Defensive havoc41th
Points per drive72th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Kansas State2022OA +0.082 / +0.085similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, havoc rate3972Notre Dame2026OA +0.038 / +0.037similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, pass defense3693Wake Forest2017OA +0.156 / +0.050similar: run defense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3644Alabama2023OA +0.054 / +0.111similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3575Michigan2021OA +0.126 / +0.077similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, offensive success rate347
2021 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Rice | 38-17 | W | -19.5 | W | 50 | O |
| 2 | vs Texas | 40-21 | W | +6.0 | W | 58.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Georgia Southern | 45-10 | W | -23.5 | W | 52.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Texas A&M | 20-10 | W | +7.5 | W | - | - |
| 5 | @ Georgia | 0-37 | L | +18.3 | L | 48.5 | U |
| 6 | @ Ole Miss | 51-52 | L | +5.5 | W | 66.5 | O |
| 7 | vs Auburn | 23-38 | L | -3.5 | L | 53.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 45-3 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 10 | vs Mississippi State | 31-28 | W | -5.3 | L | 55.5 | O |
| 11 | @ LSU | 16-13 | W | -2.5 | W | 59 | U |
| 12 | @ Alabama | 35-42 | L | +21.0 | W | 57.5 | O |
| 13 | vs Missouri | 34-17 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 18 | vs Penn State | 24-10 | W | -3.0 | W | 50.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
9-3
75.0%
O/U Record
7-4
63.6%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS6-2
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS5-2
Underdog ATS4-1
Last 5 ATS
LWWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.050 | 66th | -0.044 | 64th |
| Red Zone | +0.124 | 80th | -0.279 | 92th |
| Third Down | +0.101 | 53th | -0.170 | 89th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.071 | 80th | -0.056 | 69th |
| First Half | -0.023 | 39th | -0.080 | 72th |
| Second Half | +0.128 | 92th | -0.005 | 50th |
| Early Downs | +0.061 | 75th | +0.004 | 38th |
| Passing Downs | +0.053 | 67th | -0.176 | 86th |
| Standard Downs | +0.048 | 65th | +0.026 | 36th |
| Goal to Go | +0.192 | 86th | -0.358 | 85th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 34.8%Rush 65.2%
Havoc/Game
12.5
Havoc Rate
17.8%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
15.8
Yards/Game
441.7
Pts/Drive
2.52
3rd Down%
36.8%
3&Out%
21.5%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 13 games — Arkansas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Arkansas | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 402 | 298 |
| Points / Game | 30.9 | 22.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 283 | 250 |
| Rushing | 161 | 103 |
| Passing | 104 | 117 |
| Penalty | 18 | 30 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 588 | 497 |
| Yards | 2,961 | 2,000 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.0 | 4.0 |
| Yards / Game | 227.8 | 153.8 |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 17 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 314 | 388 |
| Completions | 205 | 226 |
| Completion % | 65.3% | 58.2% |
| Yards | 2,781 | 2,779 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.9 | 7.2 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 16 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 13 |
| Passer Rating | 159.62 | 125.32 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 902 | 885 |
| Yards | 5,742 | 4,779 |
| Yards / Play | 6.4 | 5.4 |
| Yards / Game | 441.7 | 367.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 24 | 20 |
| Yards | 264 | 149 |
| Average | 11.0 | 7.5 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 10 |
| Yards | 311 | 211 |
| Average | 17.3 | 21.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 61 | 68 |
| Yards | 2,547 | 2,972 |
| Average | 41.8 | 43.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 5 |
| Yards | 97 | 9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 21 | 9 |
| Lost | 6 | 3 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 103 | 84 |
| Yards | 820 | 615 |
| Yards / Game | 63.1 | 47.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:11 | 30:49 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 174 | 185 |
| Conversions | 64 | 62 |
| Conversion % | 36.8% | 33.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 25 |
| Conversions | 12 | 15 |
| Conversion % | 63.2% | 60.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 52 | 37 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 46 | 27 |
| Score % | 88.5% | 73.0% |
| Touchdowns | 33 | 18 |
| TD % | 63.5% | 48.6% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 26 |
| Made | 20 | 17 |
| Pct | 83.3% | 65.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 46 | 32 |
| Made | 46 | 31 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 96.9% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 3 |
| Made | 1 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.