Fourth Down Data
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KSU

Kansas State

WildcatsRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference10-4#7 (+10.21)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

95· AOverall
Offense
82· BRating
64· CPer play
52· CConsistency
61· CBig plays
Defense
82· BRating
53· CPer play
62· CConsistency
Situational
52· CRed-zone O
14· FRed-zone D
78· B3rd down O
85· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.082
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.085
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.033
Defensive EPA/play
-0.033
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.6%
Def Success Rate
43.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.065
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.058
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.58

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+3.16
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.16
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+1.32
own return game
Return Defense
+0.63
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#7
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#14
model 7 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#54
model 47 higher
Recruiting Rank
#64
model 57 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Kansas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
79th
Opp-adjusted defense
82th
Offensive EPA/play
64th
Defensive EPA/play
53th
Offensive success rate
46th
Explosiveness
61th
Defensive havoc
34th
Points per drive
74th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arkansas2021OA +0.129 / +0.084similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, havoc rate3972Georgia Southern2018OA +0.015 / +0.044similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, rushing offense3933Iowa State2024OA +0.039 / +0.005similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, takeaway rate3784Boise State2017OA +0.087 / +0.050similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3745Wake Forest2017OA +0.156 / +0.050similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, offensive success rate370

2022 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs South Dakota34-0W-25.0W45.5U
2vs Missouri40-12W-7.5W56U
3vs Tulane10-17L-14.0L48.5U
4@ Oklahoma41-34W+12.5W53O
5vs Texas Tech37-28W-8.0W57O
6@ Iowa State10-9W-1.0P45U
8@ TCU28-38L+3.5L54O
9vs Oklahoma State48-0W-1.5W56U
10vs Texas27-34L+2.5L54.5O
11@ Baylor31-3W+2.5W52.75U
12@ West Virginia48-31W-7.5W55O
13vs Kansas47-27W-12.0W62.5O
14@ TCU31-28W+2.5W62U
18vs Alabama20-45L+6.5L56O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-4-1
69.2%
O/U Record
7-7
50.0%
Straight Up
10-4
71.4%
Home ATS5-3
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS6-1
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off83thRush Off43thRed Zone Off53th3rd Down Off79thPass Def84thRush Def38thRed Zone Def14th3rd Down Def86th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.02760th-0.05765th
Red Zone+0.01453th+0.19114th
Third Down+0.23179th-0.11986th
No Garbage Time+0.03467th-0.04056th
First Half+0.10382th+0.01639th
Second Half-0.05937th-0.12887th
Early Downs-0.00852th+0.02427th
Passing Downs+0.14783th-0.17084th
Standard Downs-0.03343th+0.00538th
Goal to Go+0.07168th+0.3606th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.6%Rush 59.4%
Havoc/Game
11.9
Havoc Rate
17.1%
TO Margin
+0.9
Explosive/G
14.7
Yards/Game
418.8
Pts/Drive
2.58
3rd Down%
39.0%
3&Out%
20.3%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 14 games — Kansas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatKansas StateOpponents
Scoring
Points452306
Points / Game32.321.9
First Downs
Total281265
Rushing133105
Passing132138
Penalty1622
Rushing
Attempts569485
Yards2,9162,111
Yards / Carry5.14.4
Yards / Game208.3150.8
Touchdowns3215
Passing
Attempts389463
Completions242270
Completion %62.2%58.3%
Yards2,9473,141
Yards / Attempt7.66.8
Touchdowns2121
Interceptions616
Passer Rating140.58123.36
Total Offense
Plays958948
Yards5,8635,252
Yards / Play6.15.5
Yards / Game418.8375.1
Punt Returns
Returns159
Yards19755
Average13.16.1
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns3625
Yards804403
Average22.316.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5966
Yards2,6252,801
Average44.542.4
Interception Returns
Returns166
Yards10168
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1613
Lost68
Penalties
Penalties7483
Yards606634
Yards / Game43.345.3
Time of Possession
Per Game31:4428:16
Third Downs
Attempts195194
Conversions7666
Conversion %39.0%34.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2933
Conversions1713
Conversion %58.6%39.4%
Red Zone
Trips5640
Scores (TD + FG)5033
Score %89.3%82.5%
Touchdowns3227
TD %57.1%67.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2520
Made2017
Pct80.0%85.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5631
Made5429
Pct96.4%93.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts05
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →