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GASO
Georgia Southern
EaglesRun-HeavySun Belt Conference10-3#35 (+4.36)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
74· BOverall
Offense
71· BRating
72· BPer play
35· DConsistency
60· CBig plays
Defense
64· CRating
74· BPer play
33· DConsistency
Situational
92· A-Red-zone O
15· DRed-zone D
45· C3rd down O
50· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.015
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.044
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.055
Defensive EPA/play
-0.083
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.6%
Def Success Rate
47.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.138
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.094
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.54
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.57
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.16
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.37
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.02
own return game
Return Defense
+0.05
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#35
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
model 42 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Georgia Southern ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense52th
Opp-adjusted defense67th
Offensive EPA/play73th
Defensive EPA/play75th
Offensive success rate34th
Explosiveness60th
Defensive havoc50th
Points per drive77th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Kansas State2022OA +0.082 / +0.085similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, rushing offense3922Washington2019OA -0.038 / +0.089similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, defensive EPA3483Wyoming2023OA +0.016 / +0.024similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, rushing offense3334Texas2025OA -0.022 / +0.134similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, defensive EPA3285Notre Dame2019OA +0.039 / +0.186similar: passing offense, turnover rate, rushing offense319
2018 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs South Carolina State | 37-6 | W | -3.0 | L | 45.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Massachusetts | 34-13 | W | -1.5 | W | 61 | U |
| 3 | @ Clemson | 7-38 | L | +31.5 | W | 50 | U |
| 5 | vs Arkansas State | 28-21 | W | +3.0 | W | 53.5 | U |
| 6 | vs South Alabama | 48-13 | W | -13.0 | W | 56 | O |
| 7 | @ Texas State | 15-13 | W | -17.0 | L | 52 | U |
| 8 | @ New Mexico State | 48-31 | W | -9.5 | W | 52.5 | O |
| 9 | vs App State | 34-14 | W | +11.0 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 10 | @ UL Monroe | 25-44 | L | -7.0 | L | 60.5 | O |
| 11 | vs Troy | 21-35 | L | +2.0 | L | 44.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Coastal Carolina | 41-17 | W | -7.5 | W | 52.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Georgia State | 35-14 | W | -10.0 | W | 60 | U |
| 16 | @ Eastern Michigan | 23-21 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
9-3
75.0%
Home ATS4-1
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS5-3
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
WLLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.046 | 67th | -0.049 | 69th |
| Red Zone | +0.255 | 93th | +0.202 | 15th |
| Third Down | +0.031 | 45th | +0.018 | 51th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.034 | 63th | -0.078 | 74th |
| First Half | +0.022 | 56th | -0.100 | 77th |
| Second Half | +0.070 | 71th | +0.002 | 49th |
| Early Downs | +0.105 | 95th | -0.114 | 89th |
| Passing Downs | +0.026 | 58th | -0.097 | 73th |
| Standard Downs | +0.055 | 73th | -0.025 | 55th |
| Goal to Go | +0.393 | 92th | +0.444 | 4th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 15.4%Rush 84.6%
Havoc/Game
12.2
Havoc Rate
18.3%
TO Margin
+1.7
Explosive/G
13.2
Yards/Game
345.2
Pts/Drive
2.54
3rd Down%
38.9%
3&Out%
22.5%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 13 games — Georgia Southern vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Georgia Southern | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 396 | 280 |
| Points / Game | 30.5 | 21.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 220 | 243 |
| Rushing | 169 | 103 |
| Passing | 38 | 123 |
| Penalty | 13 | 17 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 643 | 465 |
| Yards | 3,461 | 1,827 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.4 | 3.9 |
| Yards / Game | 266.2 | 140.5 |
| Touchdowns | 35 | 21 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 117 | 386 |
| Completions | 70 | 239 |
| Completion % | 59.8% | 61.9% |
| Yards | 1,027 | 2,815 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.8 | 7.3 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 14 |
| Interceptions | 0 | 15 |
| Passer Rating | 161.77 | 127.37 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 760 | 851 |
| Yards | 4,488 | 4,642 |
| Yards / Play | 5.9 | 5.5 |
| Yards / Game | 345.2 | 357.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 15 |
| Yards | 127 | 79 |
| Average | 10.6 | 5.3 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 26 | 17 |
| Yards | 563 | 420 |
| Average | 21.7 | 24.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 62 | 56 |
| Yards | 2,356 | 2,204 |
| Average | 38.0 | 39.4 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 0 |
| Yards | 257 | 0 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 13 | 22 |
| Lost | 5 | 12 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 61 | 71 |
| Yards | 525 | 607 |
| Yards / Game | 40.4 | 46.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:09 | 27:51 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 157 | 179 |
| Conversions | 61 | 69 |
| Conversion % | 38.9% | 38.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 12 | 29 |
| Conversions | 6 | 20 |
| Conversion % | 50.0% | 69.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 42 | 40 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 39 | 35 |
| Score % | 92.9% | 87.5% |
| Touchdowns | 30 | 28 |
| TD % | 71.4% | 70.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 17 |
| Made | 19 | 12 |
| Pct | 90.5% | 70.6% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 45 | 32 |
| Made | 45 | 30 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 93.8% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 3 |
| Made | 2 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.