Fourth Down Data
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WYO

Wyoming

CowboysRun-Heavy
Mountain West Conference9-4#75 (-1.09)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

45· COverall
Offense
41· CRating
55· CPer play
52· CConsistency
49· CBig plays
Defense
59· CRating
61· CPer play
28· DConsistency
Situational
54· CRed-zone O
76· BRed-zone D
22· D3rd down O
33· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.016
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.024
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.024
Defensive EPA/play
-0.025
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.8%
Def Success Rate
47.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.049
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.105
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.16

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.20
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.25
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.93
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.05
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#75
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#83
model 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
#68
recruiting 7 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Wyoming ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
59th
Opp-adjusted defense
63th
Offensive EPA/play
55th
Defensive EPA/play
61th
Offensive success rate
56th
Explosiveness
49th
Defensive havoc
45th
Points per drive
49th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Iowa State2025OA +0.008 / +0.035similar: pass defense, havoc rate, run defense4102Kansas State2017OA +0.021 / +0.012similar: offensive EPA, run defense, turnover rate3793Syracuse2022OA +0.073 / +0.046similar: havoc rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3674Kansas State2021OA +0.051 / +0.065similar: run defense, takeaway rate, defensive success rate3525Washington State2022OA -0.044 / +0.068similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense343

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Texas Tech35-33W+14.0W50.5O
2vs Portland State31-17W----
3@ Texas10-31L+29.5W48.5U
4vs App State22-19W-3.0P43U
5vs New Mexico35-26W-14.0L40.5O
6vs Fresno State24-19W+6.0W44U
7@ Air Force27-34L+10.5W42.25O
9@ Boise State7-32L-7.0W42U
10vs Colorado State24-15W+5.5L50.75U
11@ UNLV14-34L----
12vs Hawai'i42-9W-13.5W46O
13@ Nevada42-6W-11.0W41.5O
18vs Toledo16-15W-3.5L44.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-4-1
63.6%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS3-2
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off41thRush Off59thRed Zone Off54th3rd Down Off22thPass Def41thRush Def72thRed Zone Def77th3rd Down Def33th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01651th-0.02663th
Red Zone+0.01854th-0.12977th
Third Down+0.05122th+0.23533th
No Garbage Time+0.03459th-0.02762th
First Half+0.10074th-0.02665th
Second Half-0.08223th-0.02655th
Early Downs+0.01270th-0.14090th
Passing Downs+0.03041th+0.05641th
Standard Downs+0.00959th-0.07072th
Goal to Go-0.23310th-0.04456th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.4%Rush 60.6%
Havoc/Game
12.5
Havoc Rate
17.8%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
12.8
Yards/Game
327.0
Pts/Drive
2.16
3rd Down%
36.8%
3&Out%
19.7%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Wyoming vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWyomingOpponents
Scoring
Points329290
Points / Game25.322.3
First Downs
Total242258
Rushing115102
Passing103143
Penalty2413
Rushing
Attempts468453
Yards2,0601,879
Yards / Carry4.44.1
Yards / Game158.5144.5
Touchdowns1912
Passing
Attempts304433
Completions189253
Completion %62.2%58.4%
Yards2,1912,772
Yards / Attempt7.26.4
Touchdowns2018
Interceptions611
Passer Rating140.47120.84
Total Offense
Plays772886
Yards4,2514,651
Yards / Play5.55.2
Yards / Game327.0357.8
Punt Returns
Returns912
Yards33102
Average3.78.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1422
Yards258488
Average18.422.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6150
Yards2,5672,228
Average42.144.6
Interception Returns
Returns116
Yards12070
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1116
Lost511
Penalties
Penalties5160
Yards434531
Yards / Game33.440.8
Time of Possession
Per Game30:1429:46
Third Downs
Attempts152191
Conversions5685
Conversion %36.8%44.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts923
Conversions613
Conversion %66.7%56.5%
Red Zone
Trips4047
Scores (TD + FG)3540
Score %87.5%85.1%
Touchdowns2625
TD %65.0%53.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2028
Made1322
Pct65.0%78.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3927
Made3826
Pct97.4%96.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts25
Made22
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →