Fourth Down Data
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KSU

Kansas State

WildcatsRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference8-5#35 (+9.37)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

74· BOverall
Offense
69· CRating
53· CPer play
50· CConsistency
39· DBig plays
Defense
60· CRating
43· CPer play
48· CConsistency
Situational
37· DRed-zone O
83· BRed-zone D
24· D3rd down O
25· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.021
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.012
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.014
Defensive EPA/play
+0.005
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.2%
Def Success Rate
45.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.019
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.116
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.38

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+3.67
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.21
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.90
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.41
own return game
Return Defense
+0.15
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#35
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 40 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Kansas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
62th
Opp-adjusted defense
56th
Offensive EPA/play
53th
Defensive EPA/play
44th
Offensive success rate
50th
Explosiveness
39th
Defensive havoc
38th
Points per drive
70th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Wyoming2023OA +0.016 / +0.024similar: offensive EPA, run defense, turnover rate3792Iowa State2025OA +0.008 / +0.035similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, run defense3743Florida State2026OA -0.001 / -0.100similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, havoc rate3424California2021OA -0.056 / -0.013similar: turnover rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3425Kentucky2017OA +0.002 / -0.044similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, offensive success rate335

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Central Arkansas55-19W-6.0W60U
2vs Charlotte55-7W-33.5W56.5O
3@ Vanderbilt7-14L-5.0L49U
5vs Baylor33-20W-14.5L56.5U
6@ Texas34-40L+5.0L48O
7vs TCU6-26L+7.5L49.5U
8vs Oklahoma35-42L+14.5W55O
9@ Kansas30-20W-24.5L55.5U
10@ Texas Tech42-35W+3.5W62O
11vs West Virginia23-28L+3.0L58U
12@ Oklahoma State45-40W+19.5W63O
13vs Iowa State20-19W-2.5L50.5U
18@ UCLA35-17W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off11thRush Off83thRed Zone Off38th3rd Down Off24thPass Def30thRush Def46thRed Zone Def84th3rd Down Def25th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.02149th+0.01238th
Red Zone-0.05338th-0.18784th
Third Down-0.19524th+0.12725th
No Garbage Time-0.01452th+0.00844th
First Half+0.00459th-0.03152th
Second Half-0.04638th+0.05023th
Early Downs+0.01770th-0.04459th
Passing Downs-0.18511th+0.07330th
Standard Downs+0.07083th-0.01946th
Goal to Go+0.16177th-0.13066th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 34.2%Rush 65.8%
Havoc/Game
12.8
Havoc Rate
17.0%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
12.6
Yards/Game
372.5
Pts/Drive
2.38
3rd Down%
33.3%
3&Out%
24.8%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Kansas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatKansas StateOpponents
Scoring
Points420327
Points / Game32.325.2
First Downs
Total224272
Rushing12188
Passing89174
Penalty1410
Rushing
Attempts519427
Yards2,5841,530
Yards / Carry5.03.6
Yards / Game198.8117.7
Touchdowns2917
Passing
Attempts270526
Completions156327
Completion %57.8%62.2%
Yards2,2594,018
Yards / Attempt8.47.6
Touchdowns1623
Interceptions812
Passer Rating141.69136.20
Total Offense
Plays789953
Yards4,8435,548
Yards / Play6.15.8
Yards / Game372.5426.8
Punt Returns
Returns2917
Yards39597
Average13.65.7
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns4638
Yards1,136630
Average24.716.6
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts5963
Yards2,5862,495
Average43.839.6
Interception Returns
Returns128
Yards13094
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1017
Lost511
Penalties
Penalties6774
Yards596613
Yards / Game45.847.2
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3729:23
Third Downs
Attempts153194
Conversions5180
Conversion %33.3%41.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1024
Conversions413
Conversion %40.0%54.2%
Red Zone
Trips5247
Scores (TD + FG)4437
Score %84.6%78.7%
Touchdowns3224
TD %61.5%51.1%
Field Goals
Attempts2621
Made2117
Pct80.8%81.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4936
Made4934
Pct100.0%94.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →