Miami (OH) RedHawks Football Analytics

M-OH

Miami (OH)

RedHawksPass-Heavy

Mid-American Conference0-1#104 (-4.72)

Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

25· DOverall

Offense

56· CRating

58· CPer play

4· FConsistency

56· CBig plays

Defense

10· FRating

5· FPer play

12· FConsistency

Situational

96· ARed-zone O

56· CRed-zone D

10· F3rd down O

2· F3rd down D

How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense

+0.043

Opp-Adj Defense

-0.053

higher = better

Offensive EPA/play

+0.113

Defensive EPA/play

+0.325

lower = better

Off Success Rate

34.5%

Def Success Rate

56.0%

allowed · lower = better

Explosive Rate

23.7%

pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8

Explosive Allowed

17.3%

lower = better

Net EPA/play

-0.212

net · higher = better

Recent EPA Trend

0.000

last 3 weeks

Points / Drive

1.75

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating

+0.04

expected pts/game

Kicking

-0.15

own kicking game

Kick Defense

-0.06

vs opponent kicks

Returns

+0.23

own return game

Return Defense

+0.01

vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Miami (OH) ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense

84th

Opp-adjusted defense

13th

Offensive EPA/play

58th

Defensive EPA/play

5th

Offensive success rate

7th

Explosiveness

57th

Defensive havoc

7th

Points per drive

31th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Michigan State2025OA +0.075 / -0.070similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, pass defense322 2Oregon State2026OA +0.042 / -0.008similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, defensive success rate317 3Boise State2026OA +0.041 / -0.017similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, defensive success rate303 4Mississippi State2024OA +0.011 / -0.053similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, pass defense301 5East Carolina2026OA -0.001 / -0.051similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA290

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

Wk	Opponent	Score	W/L	Spread	ATS	Total	O/U
1	@ Pittsburgh	14-59	L	+16.5	L	47.5	O
2	vs Holy Cross	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	@ Cincinnati	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	vs UConn	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	vs Bowling Green	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	@ Massachusetts	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	vs Akron	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	@ Central Michigan	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	vs Buffalo	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	vs Ohio	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	@ Kent State	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	@ Western Michigan	-	-	-	-	-	-

Betting Profile

ATS Record

0-1

0.0%

O/U Record

1-0

100.0%

Straight Up

0-1

0.0%

Home ATS0-0

Away ATS0-1

Favorite ATS0-0

Underdog ATS0-1

Last 5 ATS

Full ATS log & splits →

Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Situation	OFF EPA	OFF Rank	DEF EPA	DEF Rank
Overall	-0.017	38th	+0.273	7th
Red Zone	+0.819	97th	-0.190	56th
Third Down	-0.702	10th	+1.123	2th
No Garbage Time	+0.113	61th	+0.325	5th
First Half	+0.173	67th	+0.241	11th
Second Half	-0.307	10th	+0.308	15th
Early Downs	+0.243	86th	+0.183	15th
Passing Downs	-0.150	31th	+0.582	6th
Standard Downs	+0.115	67th	+0.137	14th
Goal to Go	+0.819	87th	+0.439	47th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 63.8%Rush 36.2%

Havoc/Game

6.0

Havoc Rate

7.8%

TO Margin

-1.0

Explosive/G

9.0

Yards/Game

289.0

Pts/Drive

1.75

3rd Down%

23.1%

3&Out%

50.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Miami (OH) vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.

Stat	Miami (OH)	Opponents
Scoring
Points	14	59
Points / Game	14.0	59.0
First Downs
Total	14	33
Rushing	3	9
Passing	10	21
Penalty	1	3
Rushing
Attempts	21	31
Yards	27	166
Yards / Carry	1.3	5.4
Yards / Game	27.0	166.0
Touchdowns	1	1
Passing
Attempts	37	44
Completions	19	34
Completion %	51.4%	77.3%
Yards	262	480
Yards / Attempt	7.1	10.9
Touchdowns	1	7
Interceptions	1	0
Passer Rating	114.35	221.41
Total Offense
Plays	58	75
Yards	289	646
Yards / Play	5.0	8.6
Yards / Game	289.0	646.0
Punt Returns
Returns	1	2
Yards	-2	15
Average	-2.0	7.5
Touchdowns	0	0
Kickoff Returns
Returns	3	2
Yards	107	55
Average	35.7	27.5
Touchdowns	0	0
Punting
Punts	8	2
Yards	335	106
Average	41.9	53.0
Interception Returns
Returns	0	1
Yards	0	0
Touchdowns	0	0
Fumbles
Fumbles	0	1
Lost	0	0
Penalties
Penalties	9	5
Yards	78	38
Yards / Game	78.0	38.0
Time of Possession
Per Game	26:04	33:56
Third Downs
Attempts	13	10
Conversions	3	7
Conversion %	23.1%	70.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts	1	1
Conversions	1	0
Conversion %	100.0%	0.0%
Red Zone
Trips	1	4
Scores (TD + FG)	1	2
Score %	100.0%	50.0%
Touchdowns	1	2
TD %	100.0%	50.0%
Field Goals
Attempts	0	1
Made	0	1
Pct	—	100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts	2	8
Made	2	8
Pct	100.0%	100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts	0	0
Made	0	0

Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.

Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →