Fourth Down Data
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NIU

Northern Illinois

HuskiesRun-Heavy
Mountain West Conference3-9#117 (-6.34)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

14· FOverall
Offense
45· CRating
51· CPer play
61· CConsistency
49· CBig plays
Defense
4· FRating
20· DPer play
45· CConsistency
Situational
58· CRed-zone O
6· FRed-zone D
52· C3rd down O
13· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.036
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.147
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.003
Defensive EPA/play
+0.067
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.1%
Def Success Rate
45.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.070
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.181
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.08

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.17
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.79
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.65
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.89
own return game
Return Defense
+1.15
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#117
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#66
market 51 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 42 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Northern Illinois ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
64th
Opp-adjusted defense
7th
Offensive EPA/play
51th
Defensive EPA/play
20th
Offensive success rate
59th
Explosiveness
50th
Defensive havoc
51th
Points per drive
46th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Coastal Carolina2024OA -0.004 / -0.025similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, TD drive rate3802Georgia Tech2021OA +0.003 / -0.081similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, pass defense3713Houston2026OA +0.008 / -0.042similar: offensive EPA, run defense, defensive EPA3214Coastal Carolina2017OA +0.006 / -0.136similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, pass defense3205Kansas State2017OA +0.021 / +0.012similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA316

2022 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Eastern Illinois34-27W----
2@ Tulsa35-38L+6.5W63.5O
3vs Vanderbilt28-38L-2.5L59.75O
4@ Kentucky23-31L+26.5W53O
5@ Ball State38-44L-3.5L60O
6vs Toledo32-52L+5.5L60O
7@ Eastern Michigan39-10W+2.5W66U
8@ Ohio17-24L-3.0L65.5U
10vs Central Michigan22-35L0.0W49.5U
11@ Western Michigan24-21W-1.5L45.5O
12vs Miami (OH)23-29L----
13vs Akron12-44L-10.0L53O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
9-3
75.0%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS0-6
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS0-7
Underdog ATS4-1
Last 5 ATS
LLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off19thRush Off81thRed Zone Off59th3rd Down Off53thPass Def18thRush Def25thRed Zone Def6th3rd Down Def13th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.00655th+0.05721th
Red Zone+0.04859th+0.2456th
Third Down+0.09053th+0.31313th
No Garbage Time-0.00852th+0.06321th
First Half-0.03441th+0.02535th
Second Half+0.04469th+0.08912th
Early Downs+0.00057th+0.02824th
Passing Downs-0.12819th+0.10618th
Standard Downs+0.07781th+0.02925th
Goal to Go+0.25284th+0.3228th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.7%Rush 59.3%
Havoc/Game
12.6
Havoc Rate
18.4%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
373.1
Pts/Drive
2.08
3rd Down%
39.2%
3&Out%
20.3%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 12 games — Northern Illinois vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorthern IllinoisOpponents
Scoring
Points327393
Points / Game27.332.8
First Downs
Total225267
Rushing10697
Passing103143
Penalty1627
Rushing
Attempts478446
Yards2,2851,714
Yards / Carry4.83.8
Yards / Game190.4142.8
Touchdowns1914
Passing
Attempts328361
Completions185224
Completion %56.4%62.0%
Yards2,1923,034
Yards / Attempt6.78.4
Touchdowns1832
Interceptions148
Passer Rating122.11157.47
Total Offense
Plays806807
Yards4,4774,748
Yards / Play5.65.9
Yards / Game373.1395.7
Punt Returns
Returns712
Yards1378
Average1.96.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2636
Yards434516
Average16.714.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5037
Yards1,9951,613
Average39.943.6
Interception Returns
Returns814
Yards41213
Touchdowns13
Fumbles
Fumbles1017
Lost211
Penalties
Penalties7664
Yards750582
Yards / Game62.548.5
Time of Possession
Per Game30:4529:14
Third Downs
Attempts171164
Conversions6773
Conversion %39.2%44.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2122
Conversions1014
Conversion %47.6%63.6%
Red Zone
Trips4047
Scores (TD + FG)3643
Score %90.0%91.5%
Touchdowns2432
TD %60.0%68.1%
Field Goals
Attempts2321
Made1814
Pct78.3%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3149
Made3149
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts81
Made40
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →