Fourth Down Data
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CCU

Coastal Carolina

ChanticleersBalanced
Sun Belt Conference6-7#100 (-4.58)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

26· DOverall
Offense
41· CRating
47· CPer play
55· CConsistency
52· CBig plays
Defense
18· DRating
27· DPer play
24· DConsistency
Situational
18· DRed-zone O
45· CRed-zone D
30· D3rd down O
9· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.004
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.025
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.000
Defensive EPA/play
+0.051
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.0%
Def Success Rate
46.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.051
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.201
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.13

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.94
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.04
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.88
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#100
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#96
market 4 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
recruiting 20 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Coastal Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
40th
Opp-adjusted defense
25th
Offensive EPA/play
47th
Defensive EPA/play
27th
Offensive success rate
51th
Explosiveness
52th
Defensive havoc
29th
Points per drive
41th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Tulane2025OA -0.011 / +0.016similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, defensive EPA4012Northern Illinois2022OA +0.036 / -0.147similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, TD drive rate3803Georgia Tech2021OA +0.003 / -0.081similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3734Florida State2026OA -0.001 / -0.100similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, passing offense3695Auburn2020OA -0.001 / -0.017similar: run defense, passing offense, havoc rate367

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Jacksonville State55-27W----
2vs William & Mary40-21W----
3@ Temple28-20W-18.0L52.5U
4vs Virginia24-43L+3.5L56O
6vs Old Dominion45-37W+9.5L61U
7@ James Madison7-39L----
8vs Louisiana24-34L+4.5L56.5O
10@ Troy24-38L-4.5L52O
11vs App State38-24W----
12@ Marshall19-31L+8.5L56.5U
13vs Georgia Southern6-26L-2.5L57U
14@ Georgia State48-27W+1.0W55.5O
17vs UTSA15-44L+31.0W40.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS4-4
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off68thRush Off32thRed Zone Off19th3rd Down Off30thPass Def31thRush Def38thRed Zone Def46th3rd Down Def9th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.00449th+0.04228th
Red Zone-0.16219th+0.01346th
Third Down+0.00530th+0.3289th
No Garbage Time-0.00843th+0.03530th
First Half+0.00951th+0.07321th
Second Half-0.00140th+0.00947th
Early Downs-0.02149th-0.04054th
Passing Downs+0.08668th+0.06431th
Standard Downs-0.04232th+0.03038th
Goal to Go-0.06635th+0.20910th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.6%Rush 57.4%
Havoc/Game
11.5
Havoc Rate
16.3%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
13.6
Yards/Game
373.7
Pts/Drive
2.13
3rd Down%
38.2%
3&Out%
18.5%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Coastal Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCoastal CarolinaOpponents
Scoring
Points373411
Points / Game28.731.6
First Downs
Total235273
Rushing109129
Passing103125
Penalty2319
Rushing
Attempts484512
Yards2,2422,419
Yards / Carry4.64.7
Yards / Game172.5186.1
Touchdowns2122
Passing
Attempts359389
Completions195238
Completion %54.3%61.2%
Yards2,6162,961
Yards / Attempt7.37.6
Touchdowns2024
Interceptions1111
Passer Rating127.78139.83
Total Offense
Plays843901
Yards4,8585,380
Yards / Play5.86.0
Yards / Game373.7413.8
Punt Returns
Returns914
Yards8868
Average9.84.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2425
Yards414633
Average17.325.3
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5643
Yards2,3031,877
Average41.143.7
Interception Returns
Returns1111
Yards167107
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles1521
Lost611
Penalties
Penalties9082
Yards829681
Yards / Game63.852.4
Time of Possession
Per Game28:4931:11
Third Downs
Attempts170185
Conversions6581
Conversion %38.2%43.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2327
Conversions815
Conversion %34.8%55.6%
Red Zone
Trips4852
Scores (TD + FG)3948
Score %81.3%92.3%
Touchdowns2931
TD %60.4%59.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1926
Made1623
Pct84.2%88.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4544
Made4544
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts15
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →