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AUB
Auburn
TigersBalancedSoutheastern Conference6-5#66 (+0.16)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
49· COverall
Offense
40· CRating
53· CPer play
60· CConsistency
53· CBig plays
Defense
52· CRating
34· DPer play
20· DConsistency
Situational
32· DRed-zone O
42· CRed-zone D
36· D3rd down O
20· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.001
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.017
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.021
Defensive EPA/play
+0.063
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.3%
Def Success Rate
49.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.041
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.027
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.01
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.41
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.45
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.56
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.62
own return game
Return Defense
-0.23
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#66
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#56
market 10 higher
Recruiting Rank
#10
recruiting 56 spots higher
43 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Auburn ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense51th
Opp-adjusted defense31th
Offensive EPA/play53th
Defensive EPA/play35th
Offensive success rate68th
Explosiveness53th
Defensive havoc35th
Points per drive36th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Arizona State2018OA +0.072 / -0.049similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, run defense4032UCLA2018OA +0.036 / -0.086similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, TD drive rate3783Coastal Carolina2024OA -0.004 / -0.025similar: run defense, passing offense, havoc rate3674California2021OA -0.056 / -0.013similar: turnover rate, pass defense, passing offense3535Kansas State2018OA +0.042 / +0.007similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA351
2020 Schedule & Results
11 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | vs Kentucky | 29-13 | W | -7.5 | W | 49.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Georgia | 6-27 | L | +7.0 | L | 44.75 | U |
| 6 | vs Arkansas | 30-28 | W | -13.5 | L | 46.5 | O |
| 7 | @ South Carolina | 22-30 | L | -3.0 | L | 51.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Ole Miss | 35-28 | W | -3.3 | W | 70.5 | U |
| 9 | vs LSU | 48-11 | W | +2.5 | W | 65 | U |
| 12 | vs Tennessee | 30-17 | W | -10.5 | W | 50.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Alabama | 13-42 | L | +24.5 | L | 62.5 | U |
| 14 | vs Texas A&M | 20-31 | L | +6.5 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 15 | @ Mississippi State | 24-10 | W | -6.5 | W | 50 | U |
| 18 | @ Northwestern | 19-35 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-6
45.5%
O/U Record
4-7
36.4%
Straight Up
6-5
54.5%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS4-2
Underdog ATS1-4
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.033 | 59th | +0.054 | 37th |
| Red Zone | -0.068 | 33th | +0.024 | 42th |
| Third Down | -0.003 | 37th | +0.268 | 20th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.026 | 55th | +0.058 | 34th |
| First Half | -0.018 | 39th | +0.041 | 41th |
| Second Half | +0.082 | 73th | +0.067 | 38th |
| Early Downs | +0.018 | 59th | +0.005 | 52th |
| Passing Downs | +0.026 | 48th | +0.130 | 29th |
| Standard Downs | +0.037 | 66th | +0.017 | 52th |
| Goal to Go | +0.168 | 68th | -0.108 | 73th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 48.0%Rush 52.0%
Havoc/Game
12.5
Havoc Rate
17.0%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
15.3
Yards/Game
382.8
Pts/Drive
2.01
3rd Down%
44.9%
3&Out%
21.8%
Team Statistics
2020 season totals across 11 games — Auburn vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Auburn | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 276 | 272 |
| Points / Game | 25.1 | 24.7 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 227 | 252 |
| Rushing | 110 | 105 |
| Passing | 104 | 128 |
| Penalty | 13 | 19 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 392 | 430 |
| Yards | 1,788 | 1,797 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.6 | 4.2 |
| Yards / Game | 162.5 | 163.4 |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 16 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 362 | 364 |
| Completions | 216 | 235 |
| Completion % | 59.7% | 64.6% |
| Yards | 2,423 | 2,669 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.7 | 7.3 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 20 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 122.96 | 139.34 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 754 | 794 |
| Yards | 4,211 | 4,466 |
| Yards / Play | 5.6 | 5.6 |
| Yards / Game | 382.8 | 406.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 8 |
| Yards | 82 | 22 |
| Average | 9.1 | 2.8 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 15 |
| Yards | 505 | 400 |
| Average | 22.0 | 26.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 47 | 44 |
| Yards | 1,921 | 1,932 |
| Average | 40.9 | 43.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 7 |
| Yards | 278 | 77 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 10 | 7 |
| Lost | 2 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 64 | 52 |
| Yards | 548 | 454 |
| Yards / Game | 49.8 | 41.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:44 | 31:06 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 158 | 163 |
| Conversions | 71 | 82 |
| Conversion % | 44.9% | 50.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 11 | 15 |
| Conversions | 3 | 7 |
| Conversion % | 27.3% | 46.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 40 | 38 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 34 | 29 |
| Score % | 85.0% | 76.3% |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 25 |
| TD % | 55.0% | 65.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 14 |
| Made | 20 | 8 |
| Pct | 90.9% | 57.1% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 31 |
| Made | 24 | 30 |
| Pct | 96.0% | 96.8% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 6 | 5 |
| Made | 3 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.