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CAL
California
Golden BearsBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference5-7#76 (-0.49)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
43· COverall
Offense
23· DRating
39· DPer play
63· CConsistency
30· DBig plays
Defense
53· CRating
48· CPer play
56· CConsistency
Situational
27· DRed-zone O
46· CRed-zone D
31· D3rd down O
31· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.056
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.013
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.023
Defensive EPA/play
-0.017
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.1%
Def Success Rate
44.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.006
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.029
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.97
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.54
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.49
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.26
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.12
own return game
Return Defense
+0.67
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#76
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#62
market 14 higher
Recruiting Rank
#36
recruiting 40 spots higher
10 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where California ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense26th
Opp-adjusted defense40th
Offensive EPA/play40th
Defensive EPA/play48th
Offensive success rate59th
Explosiveness30th
Defensive havoc58th
Points per drive32th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Washington State2022OA -0.044 / +0.068similar: passing offense, run defense, defensive success rate3772Iowa State2025OA +0.008 / +0.035similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, pass defense3763Florida International2025OA -0.074 / -0.025similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3754Florida2024OA -0.011 / +0.014similar: run defense, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3695UNLV2026OA -0.009 / +0.000similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, rushing offense367
2021 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Nevada | 17-22 | L | -3.0 | L | 52.5 | U |
| 2 | @ TCU | 32-34 | L | +9.5 | W | 49 | O |
| 3 | vs Sacramento State | 42-30 | W | -24.5 | L | 49.25 | O |
| 4 | @ Washington | 24-31 | L | +7.5 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Washington State | 6-21 | L | -7.5 | L | 52 | U |
| 7 | @ Oregon | 17-24 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 8 | vs Colorado | 26-3 | W | -8.8 | W | 43 | U |
| 9 | vs Oregon State | 39-25 | W | +1.5 | W | 55.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Arizona | 3-10 | L | -11.8 | L | 50.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Stanford | 41-11 | W | -2.0 | W | 45.5 | O |
| 13 | @ UCLA | 14-42 | L | +7.0 | L | 57.5 | U |
| 14 | vs USC | 24-14 | W | -4.5 | W | 57.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS3-4
Underdog ATS4-1
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.022 | 39th | -0.023 | 50th |
| Red Zone | -0.140 | 27th | -0.015 | 47th |
| Third Down | -0.002 | 31th | +0.159 | 31th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.015 | 43th | -0.021 | 49th |
| First Half | +0.013 | 49th | -0.070 | 68th |
| Second Half | -0.052 | 32th | +0.028 | 34th |
| Early Downs | +0.016 | 59th | -0.045 | 63th |
| Passing Downs | -0.049 | 38th | +0.029 | 38th |
| Standard Downs | -0.007 | 46th | -0.052 | 66th |
| Goal to Go | -0.250 | 20th | +0.031 | 42th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 48.7%Rush 51.3%
Havoc/Game
13.7
Havoc Rate
19.2%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
14.3
Yards/Game
385.8
Pts/Drive
1.97
3rd Down%
41.0%
3&Out%
22.0%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 12 games — California vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | California | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 285 | 267 |
| Points / Game | 23.8 | 22.3 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 229 | 255 |
| Rushing | 102 | 108 |
| Passing | 111 | 124 |
| Penalty | 16 | 23 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 402 | 418 |
| Yards | 1,976 | 1,641 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.9 | 3.9 |
| Yards / Game | 164.7 | 136.8 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 13 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 382 | 411 |
| Completions | 235 | 242 |
| Completion % | 61.5% | 58.9% |
| Yards | 2,653 | 2,754 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.9 | 6.7 |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 20 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 13 |
| Passer Rating | 129.49 | 124.90 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 784 | 829 |
| Yards | 4,629 | 4,395 |
| Yards / Play | 5.9 | 5.3 |
| Yards / Game | 385.8 | 366.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 12 |
| Yards | 100 | 113 |
| Average | 7.1 | 9.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 19 | 28 |
| Yards | 491 | 565 |
| Average | 25.8 | 20.2 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 53 | 52 |
| Yards | 2,284 | 2,372 |
| Average | 43.1 | 45.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 8 |
| Yards | 31 | 62 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 7 | 10 |
| Lost | 2 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 74 | 70 |
| Yards | 694 | 598 |
| Yards / Game | 57.8 | 49.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:21 | 29:35 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 166 | 179 |
| Conversions | 68 | 83 |
| Conversion % | 41.0% | 46.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 12 |
| Conversions | 9 | 6 |
| Conversion % | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 41 | 40 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 32 | 30 |
| Score % | 78.0% | 75.0% |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 23 |
| TD % | 58.5% | 57.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 19 |
| Made | 12 | 12 |
| Pct | 80.0% | 63.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 31 | 27 |
| Made | 31 | 27 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 5 | 6 |
| Made | 1 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.