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ISU
Iowa State
CyclonesBalancedBig 12 Conference8-4#49 (+4.22)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
64· COverall
Offense
49· CRating
67· CPer play
58· CConsistency
54· CBig plays
Defense
72· BRating
55· CPer play
62· CConsistency
Situational
52· CRed-zone O
54· CRed-zone D
29· D3rd down O
23· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.008
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.035
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.041
Defensive EPA/play
-0.029
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.2%
Def Success Rate
44.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.070
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.004
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.38
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.51
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.19
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.26
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#49
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#35
market 14 higher
Recruiting Rank
#58
model 9 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Iowa State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense58th
Opp-adjusted defense66th
Offensive EPA/play68th
Defensive EPA/play55th
Offensive success rate60th
Explosiveness54th
Defensive havoc43th
Points per drive60th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Wyoming2023OA +0.016 / +0.024similar: pass defense, havoc rate, run defense4102Fresno State2023OA +0.055 / -0.018similar: pass defense, turnover rate, havoc rate3863California2021OA -0.056 / -0.013similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, pass defense3774Kansas State2017OA +0.021 / +0.012similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, run defense3745Ball State2020OA +0.028 / +0.019similar: run defense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate373
2025 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | @ Kansas State | 24-21 | W | +3.0 | W | 52 | U |
| 1 | vs South Dakota | 55-7 | W | -37.5 | W | 62.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Iowa | 16-13 | W | -3.5 | L | 43 | U |
| 3 | @ Arkansas State | 24-16 | W | -15.5 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Arizona | 39-14 | W | -4.0 | W | 48.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Cincinnati | 30-38 | L | +1.0 | L | 55.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Colorado | 17-24 | L | -3.0 | L | 52 | U |
| 9 | vs BYU | 27-41 | L | -3.0 | L | 56.25 | O |
| 10 | vs Arizona State | 19-24 | L | -7.5 | L | 49.5 | U |
| 11 | @ TCU | 20-17 | W | +2.5 | W | 42.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Kansas | 38-14 | W | -3.5 | W | 55.5 | U |
| 14 | @ Oklahoma State | 20-13 | W | -13.5 | L | 46.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
3-9
25.0%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS3-6
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
LLWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.036 | 65th | -0.034 | 59th |
| Red Zone | +0.006 | 53th | -0.033 | 55th |
| Third Down | -0.030 | 30th | +0.167 | 23th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.043 | 68th | -0.032 | 56th |
| First Half | +0.090 | 77th | -0.030 | 56th |
| Second Half | -0.015 | 47th | -0.039 | 61th |
| Early Downs | +0.066 | 80th | -0.088 | 78th |
| Passing Downs | -0.089 | 30th | +0.014 | 39th |
| Standard Downs | +0.096 | 82th | -0.062 | 70th |
| Goal to Go | -0.171 | 23th | +0.337 | 6th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 42.1%Rush 57.9%
Havoc/Game
11.4
Havoc Rate
17.5%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
396.1
Pts/Drive
2.38
3rd Down%
40.1%
3&Out%
16.8%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 12 games — Iowa State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Iowa State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 329 | 242 |
| Points / Game | 27.4 | 20.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 253 | 211 |
| Rushing | 114 | 81 |
| Passing | 119 | 115 |
| Penalty | 20 | 15 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 478 | 373 |
| Yards | 2,096 | 1,656 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| Yards / Game | 174.7 | 138.0 |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 14 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 347 | 387 |
| Completions | 210 | 237 |
| Completion % | 60.5% | 61.2% |
| Yards | 2,657 | 2,622 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.7 | 6.8 |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 14 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 11 |
| Passer Rating | 134.87 | 124.41 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 825 | 760 |
| Yards | 4,753 | 4,278 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 5.6 |
| Yards / Game | 396.1 | 356.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 7 |
| Yards | 213 | 15 |
| Average | 17.8 | 2.1 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 47 |
| Yards | 190 | 970 |
| Average | 17.3 | 20.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 43 | 50 |
| Yards | 1,812 | 2,097 |
| Average | 42.1 | 41.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 9 |
| Yards | 132 | 98 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 12 | 19 |
| Lost | 5 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 55 | 78 |
| Yards | 480 | 694 |
| Yards / Game | 40.0 | 57.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:17 | 28:25 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 162 | 160 |
| Conversions | 65 | 62 |
| Conversion % | 40.1% | 38.8% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 28 | 24 |
| Conversions | 19 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 67.9% | 45.8% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 51 | 36 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 42 | 30 |
| Score % | 82.4% | 83.3% |
| Touchdowns | 32 | 20 |
| TD % | 62.7% | 55.6% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 17 |
| Made | 16 | 13 |
| Pct | 76.2% | 76.5% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 33 | 29 |
| Made | 31 | 29 |
| Pct | 93.9% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 7 | 0 |
| Made | 5 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.