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SYR
Syracuse
OrangeBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference7-6#51 (+2.52)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
62· COverall
Offense
66· CRating
51· CPer play
70· BConsistency
70· BBig plays
Defense
62· CRating
60· CPer play
10· FConsistency
Situational
40· CRed-zone O
58· CRed-zone D
37· D3rd down O
74· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.073
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.046
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.002
Defensive EPA/play
-0.048
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.0%
Def Success Rate
49.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.046
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.168
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.27
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.33
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.76
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.54
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.28
own return game
Return Defense
-0.39
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#51
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#48
market 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 24 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Syracuse ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense76th
Opp-adjusted defense70th
Offensive EPA/play52th
Defensive EPA/play61th
Offensive success rate73th
Explosiveness71th
Defensive havoc44th
Points per drive54th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Vanderbilt2026OA -0.037 / -0.004similar: passing offense, rushing offense, pass defense3712Wyoming2023OA +0.016 / +0.024similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, havoc rate3683Virginia Tech2023OA +0.066 / -0.008similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, pass defense3444Arizona State2018OA +0.072 / -0.049similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3415Iowa State2025OA +0.008 / +0.035similar: takeaway rate, havoc rate, turnover rate337
2022 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Louisville | 31-7 | W | +4.5 | W | 57 | U |
| 2 | @ UConn | 48-14 | W | -23.5 | W | 49.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Purdue | 32-29 | W | -1.5 | W | 60 | O |
| 4 | vs Virginia | 22-20 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 5 | vs Wagner | 59-0 | W | -53.0 | W | 62.5 | U |
| 7 | vs NC State | 24-9 | W | -3.5 | W | 42 | U |
| 8 | @ Clemson | 21-27 | L | +13.5 | W | 49.5 | U |
| 9 | vs Notre Dame | 24-41 | L | -2.5 | L | 48 | O |
| 10 | @ Pittsburgh | 9-19 | L | +3.5 | L | 48 | U |
| 11 | vs Florida State | 3-38 | L | +6.5 | L | 51 | U |
| 12 | @ Wake Forest | 35-45 | L | +10.0 | P | 55.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Boston College | 32-23 | W | -10.5 | L | 47 | O |
| 18 | @ Minnesota | 20-28 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5-1
58.3%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS4-3
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
LLPLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.003 | 50th | -0.057 | 64th |
| Red Zone | -0.041 | 41th | -0.084 | 59th |
| Third Down | +0.008 | 37th | -0.077 | 75th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.010 | 51th | -0.044 | 57th |
| First Half | -0.032 | 42th | -0.073 | 71th |
| Second Half | +0.027 | 64th | -0.041 | 56th |
| Early Downs | +0.017 | 64th | -0.040 | 55th |
| Passing Downs | -0.017 | 48th | -0.121 | 78th |
| Standard Downs | +0.003 | 55th | -0.029 | 54th |
| Goal to Go | -0.020 | 50th | -0.258 | 79th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 45.5%Rush 54.5%
Havoc/Game
12.4
Havoc Rate
17.6%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
14.2
Yards/Game
375.1
Pts/Drive
2.27
3rd Down%
36.6%
3&Out%
19.3%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 13 games — Syracuse vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Syracuse | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 360 | 300 |
| Points / Game | 27.7 | 23.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 264 | 251 |
| Rushing | 101 | 121 |
| Passing | 139 | 114 |
| Penalty | 24 | 16 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 444 | 503 |
| Yards | 1,861 | 1,878 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.2 | 3.7 |
| Yards / Game | 143.2 | 144.5 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 17 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 370 | 369 |
| Completions | 228 | 246 |
| Completion % | 61.6% | 66.7% |
| Yards | 3,015 | 2,403 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.1 | 6.5 |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 18 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 142.15 | 132.05 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 814 | 872 |
| Yards | 4,876 | 4,281 |
| Yards / Play | 6.0 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 375.1 | 329.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 25 | 21 |
| Yards | 195 | 188 |
| Average | 7.8 | 9.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 27 |
| Yards | 497 | 594 |
| Average | 23.7 | 22.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 54 | 59 |
| Yards | 2,071 | 2,403 |
| Average | 38.4 | 40.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 9 |
| Yards | 114 | 149 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 3 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 11 | 17 |
| Lost | 4 | 9 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 111 | 85 |
| Yards | 819 | 728 |
| Yards / Game | 63.0 | 56.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:37 | 31:20 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 153 | 174 |
| Conversions | 56 | 70 |
| Conversion % | 36.6% | 40.2% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 11 | 21 |
| Conversions | 5 | 10 |
| Conversion % | 45.5% | 47.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 48 | 44 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 42 | 37 |
| Score % | 87.5% | 84.1% |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 27 |
| TD % | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 26 | 19 |
| Made | 20 | 12 |
| Pct | 76.9% | 63.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 40 | 34 |
| Made | 40 | 32 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 94.1% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 4 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.