Fourth Down Data
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VT

Virginia Tech

HokiesRun-Heavy
Atlantic Coast Conference7-6#28 (+5.38)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

79· BOverall
Offense
73· BRating
63· CPer play
60· CConsistency
75· BBig plays
Defense
69· CRating
60· CPer play
56· CConsistency
Situational
43· CRed-zone O
11· FRed-zone D
13· F3rd down O
40· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.066
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.008
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.044
Defensive EPA/play
-0.023
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.1%
Def Success Rate
46.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.067
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.165
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.37

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.32
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.87
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.25
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.21
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#28
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#74
model 46 higher
Recruiting Rank
#53
model 25 spots higher
6 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Virginia Tech ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
78th
Opp-adjusted defense
47th
Offensive EPA/play
63th
Defensive EPA/play
60th
Offensive success rate
48th
Explosiveness
75th
Defensive havoc
88th
Points per drive
63th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Miami (OH)2021OA -0.032 / +0.021similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, takeaway rate3482Southern Miss2017OA -0.034 / -0.038similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, havoc rate3433Syracuse2022OA +0.073 / +0.046similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, pass defense3434Texas2022OA +0.125 / +0.064similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3405Tennessee2023OA +0.001 / +0.044similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate339

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Old Dominion36-17W-16.0W48O
2vs Purdue17-24L-1.5L49U
3@ Rutgers16-35L+6.5L37.5O
4@ Marshall17-24L+4.5L41.5U
5vs Pittsburgh38-21W+2.5W39.5O
6@ Florida State17-39L+24.0W53O
7vs Wake Forest30-13W-1.5W48U
9vs Syracuse38-10W----
10@ Louisville3-34L+9.5L48.5U
11@ Boston College48-22W-1.5W49O
12vs NC State28-35L-2.5L44O
13@ Virginia55-17W-3.0W51O
18@ Tulane41-20W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
9-4
69.2%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS6-2
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off43thRush Off60thRed Zone Off43th3rd Down Off13thPass Def56thRush Def36thRed Zone Def11th3rd Down Def40th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.02054th+0.01947th
Red Zone-0.03543th+0.18311th
Third Down-0.03113th+0.20840th
No Garbage Time+0.03961th-0.02059th
First Half+0.08067th-0.02163th
Second Half-0.04833th+0.06329th
Early Downs+0.01370th-0.04252th
Passing Downs+0.03443th+0.01456th
Standard Downs+0.01360th+0.02236th
Goal to Go-0.13122th+0.16329th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.8%Rush 58.2%
Havoc/Game
14.2
Havoc Rate
22.5%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
15.1
Yards/Game
391.5
Pts/Drive
2.37
3rd Down%
34.9%
3&Out%
17.9%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Virginia Tech vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatVirginia TechOpponents
Scoring
Points384311
Points / Game29.523.9
First Downs
Total258220
Rushing131100
Passing10998
Penalty1822
Rushing
Attempts498459
Yards2,4671,924
Yards / Carry5.04.2
Yards / Game189.8148.0
Touchdowns2021
Passing
Attempts357341
Completions205208
Completion %57.4%61.0%
Yards2,6222,194
Yards / Attempt7.36.4
Touchdowns2316
Interceptions57
Passer Rating137.58126.42
Total Offense
Plays855800
Yards5,0894,118
Yards / Play6.05.1
Yards / Game391.5316.8
Punt Returns
Returns2512
Yards28980
Average11.66.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2915
Yards715355
Average24.723.7
Touchdowns21
Punting
Punts6072
Yards2,5883,142
Average43.143.6
Interception Returns
Returns75
Yards6420
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles2414
Lost109
Penalties
Penalties8272
Yards752568
Yards / Game57.843.7
Time of Possession
Per Game31:1028:49
Third Downs
Attempts175167
Conversions6158
Conversion %34.9%34.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2617
Conversions179
Conversion %65.4%52.9%
Red Zone
Trips5235
Scores (TD + FG)4631
Score %88.5%88.6%
Touchdowns2723
TD %51.9%65.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2414
Made2210
Pct91.7%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4438
Made4437
Pct100.0%97.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →