Fourth Down Data
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M-OH

Miami (OH)

RedHawksBalanced
Mid-American Conference7-6#56 (+1.93)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

58· COverall
Offense
48· CRating
77· BPer play
45· CConsistency
74· BBig plays
Defense
67· CRating
57· CPer play
49· CConsistency
Situational
34· DRed-zone O
79· BRed-zone D
46· C3rd down O
51· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.032
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.021
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.068
Defensive EPA/play
-0.036
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.4%
Def Success Rate
46.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.104
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.009
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.49

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.01
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.16
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.12
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#56
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#71
model 15 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
model 16 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Miami (OH) ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
38th
Opp-adjusted defense
60th
Offensive EPA/play
77th
Defensive EPA/play
57th
Offensive success rate
34th
Explosiveness
74th
Defensive havoc
89th
Points per drive
68th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Penn State2026OA +0.030 / +0.032similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, run defense3722Texas2020OA +0.039 / -0.001similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, pass defense3643Purdue2026OA +0.017 / +0.004similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, passing offense3604Oregon2018OA +0.018 / +0.041similar: run defense, turnover rate, defensive success rate3565Virginia Tech2023OA +0.066 / -0.008similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, takeaway rate350

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Cincinnati14-49L+23.0L50.5O
2@ Minnesota26-31L+20.5W56.5O
3vs LIU42-7W----
4@ Army10-23L+7.5L48.5U
5vs Central Michigan28-17W-1.0W56.5U
6@ Eastern Michigan12-13L-1.0L59.5U
7vs Akron34-21W-19.5L50.5O
8@ Ball State24-17W+5.0W51.5U
10@ Ohio33-35L-7.5W57O
11vs Buffalo45-18W-17.0W52U
12vs Bowling Green34-7W----
13@ Kent State47-48L+1.0P65.5O
17vs North Texas27-14W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5-1
54.5%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS4-1
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS4-3
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LWWPW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off87thRush Off51thRed Zone Off35th3rd Down Off47thPass Def79thRush Def44thRed Zone Def80th3rd Down Def52th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05369th-0.03859th
Red Zone-0.10135th-0.17380th
Third Down+0.06147th+0.06652th
No Garbage Time+0.06978th-0.04361th
First Half-0.00746th+0.01541th
Second Half+0.11192th-0.09782th
Early Downs+0.01659th-0.01347th
Passing Downs+0.12887th-0.12879th
Standard Downs+0.00651th+0.01244th
Goal to Go-0.4135th-0.28380th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.6%Rush 51.4%
Havoc/Game
15.2
Havoc Rate
22.3%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
15.3
Yards/Game
426.2
Pts/Drive
2.49
3rd Down%
39.2%
3&Out%
16.9%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — Miami (OH) vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMiami (OH)Opponents
Scoring
Points376300
Points / Game28.923.1
First Downs
Total281259
Rushing101100
Passing155135
Penalty2524
Rushing
Attempts452482
Yards1,9191,897
Yards / Carry4.23.9
Yards / Game147.6145.9
Touchdowns1518
Passing
Attempts427383
Completions247235
Completion %57.8%61.4%
Yards3,6212,893
Yards / Attempt8.57.6
Touchdowns3221
Interceptions89
Passer Rating150.06138.20
Total Offense
Plays879865
Yards5,5404,790
Yards / Play6.35.5
Yards / Game426.2368.5
Punt Returns
Returns1310
Yards12088
Average9.28.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2534
Yards395690
Average15.820.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5568
Yards2,1332,793
Average38.841.1
Interception Returns
Returns98
Yards8730
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles713
Lost48
Penalties
Penalties8775
Yards792701
Yards / Game60.953.9
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4630:10
Third Downs
Attempts176178
Conversions6967
Conversion %39.2%37.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2121
Conversions911
Conversion %42.9%52.4%
Red Zone
Trips4934
Scores (TD + FG)3825
Score %77.6%73.5%
Touchdowns2819
TD %57.1%55.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2014
Made159
Pct75.0%64.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4338
Made3937
Pct90.7%97.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts51
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →