Fourth Down Data
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TEX

Texas

LonghornsBalanced
Southeastern Conference7-3#9 (+9.07)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

93· AOverall
Offense
92· A-Rating
76· BPer play
55· CConsistency
53· CBig plays
Defense
63· CRating
55· CPer play
50· CConsistency
Situational
71· BRed-zone O
59· CRed-zone D
31· D3rd down O
94· A3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.039
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.001
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.104
Defensive EPA/play
+0.010
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.4%
Def Success Rate
47.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.094
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.162
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.88

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+2.01
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.65
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.73
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.87
own return game
Return Defense
-0.24
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#9
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#19
model 10 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#17
model 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
#4
recruiting 5 spots higher
52 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Texas ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
88th
Opp-adjusted defense
51th
Offensive EPA/play
76th
Defensive EPA/play
56th
Offensive success rate
57th
Explosiveness
53th
Defensive havoc
60th
Points per drive
88th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1North Carolina2019OA +0.113 / -0.014similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, takeaway rate3992South Alabama2024OA +0.039 / -0.006similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, turnover rate3863NC State2017OA +0.101 / +0.021similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, turnover rate3764Missouri2018OA +0.102 / +0.102similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3675Oregon2018OA +0.018 / +0.041similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, takeaway rate366

2020 Schedule & Results

10 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
2vs UTEP59-3W-43.0W60.5O
4@ Texas Tech63-56W-17.5L70.5O
5vs TCU31-33L-11.5L62.5O
6@ Oklahoma45-53L+2.0L72.5O
8vs Baylor27-16W-9.0W60.75U
9@ Oklahoma State41-34W+3.3W59O
10vs West Virginia17-13W-6.5L55U
13vs Iowa State20-23L----
14@ Kansas State69-31W-7.0W51O
18@ Colorado55-23W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-5
50.0%
O/U Record
7-3
70.0%
Straight Up
7-3
70.0%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS4-4
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
WLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off87thRush Off62thRed Zone Off72th3rd Down Off31thPass Def77thRush Def35thRed Zone Def59th3rd Down Def95th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.09376th+0.01159th
Red Zone+0.11472th-0.05359th
Third Down-0.03631th-0.21395th
No Garbage Time+0.10577th+0.01652th
First Half+0.09772th-0.05476th
Second Half+0.08976th+0.08329th
Early Downs+0.08482th+0.1089th
Passing Downs+0.22287th-0.05977th
Standard Downs+0.03062th+0.04635th
Goal to Go-0.01345th+0.08844th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.3%Rush 51.7%
Havoc/Game
15.8
Havoc Rate
19.7%
TO Margin
+0.9
Explosive/G
15.3
Yards/Game
475.4
Pts/Drive
2.88
3rd Down%
37.3%
3&Out%
19.5%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 10 games — Texas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTexasOpponents
Scoring
Points427285
Points / Game42.728.5
First Downs
Total224237
Rushing9079
Passing113131
Penalty2127
Rushing
Attempts370386
Yards1,9531,402
Yards / Carry5.33.6
Yards / Game195.3140.2
Touchdowns2016
Passing
Attempts345393
Completions208246
Completion %60.3%62.6%
Yards2,8012,664
Yards / Attempt8.16.8
Touchdowns3217
Interceptions510
Passer Rating156.20128.72
Total Offense
Plays715779
Yards4,7544,066
Yards / Play6.65.2
Yards / Game475.4406.6
Punt Returns
Returns1820
Yards56181
Average3.19.1
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2312
Yards666238
Average29.019.8
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts4955
Yards2,0362,212
Average41.640.2
Interception Returns
Returns105
Yards18493
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles615
Lost48
Penalties
Penalties8171
Yards770544
Yards / Game77.054.4
Time of Possession
Per Game27:4832:12
Third Downs
Attempts134151
Conversions5053
Conversion %37.3%35.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1215
Conversions65
Conversion %50.0%33.3%
Red Zone
Trips5649
Scores (TD + FG)4840
Score %85.7%81.6%
Touchdowns3726
TD %66.1%53.1%
Field Goals
Attempts2123
Made1516
Pct71.4%69.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5131
Made5031
Pct98.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts33
Made31
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →