Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
USA

South Alabama

JaguarsBalanced
Sun Belt Conference7-6#69 (+0.64)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

49· COverall
Offense
72· BRating
88· BPer play
79· BConsistency
81· BBig plays
Defense
43· CRating
41· CPer play
31· DConsistency
Situational
26· DRed-zone O
96· ARed-zone D
49· C3rd down O
69· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.039
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.006
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.123
Defensive EPA/play
+0.014
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.9%
Def Success Rate
46.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.108
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.057
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.78

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.74
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.58
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.14
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.02
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#69
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#39
market 30 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
model 11 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where South Alabama ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
85th
Opp-adjusted defense
46th
Offensive EPA/play
89th
Defensive EPA/play
42th
Offensive success rate
78th
Explosiveness
82th
Defensive havoc
37th
Points per drive
86th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas2020OA +0.039 / -0.001similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, turnover rate3862Louisiana2019OA +0.173 / -0.015similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, defensive success rate3773Florida International2018OA +0.106 / -0.062similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3594Louisville2017OA +0.148 / -0.016similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, rushing offense3445NC State2017OA +0.101 / +0.021similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, turnover rate341

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs North Texas38-52L-5.5L64.5O
2@ Ohio20-27L-1.5L54U
3vs Northwestern State87-10W+7.0W62.5U
4@ App State48-14W----
5@ LSU10-42L+21.5L65.5U
6@ Arkansas State16-18L-3.5L61.5U
8vs Troy25-9W----
9vs UL Monroe46-17W-7.5W45.5O
10vs Georgia Southern30-34L-6.0L59.5O
12@ Louisiana24-22W+7.0W58U
13@ Southern Miss35-14W-22.5L55U
14vs Texas State38-45L----
16@ Western Michigan30-23W-7.5L57.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-8
38.5%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-5
Favorite ATS3-6
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off78thRush Off91thRed Zone Off26th3rd Down Off49thPass Def85thRush Def28thRed Zone Def97th3rd Down Def70th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.12691th-0.01960th
Red Zone-0.10726th-0.31497th
Third Down+0.10149th+0.00270th
No Garbage Time+0.12389th+0.00445th
First Half+0.16392th-0.02051th
Second Half+0.08576th-0.01857th
Early Downs+0.08688th-0.01645th
Passing Downs+0.12678th-0.13985th
Standard Downs+0.12691th+0.04728th
Goal to Go+0.00149th-0.23684th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.5%Rush 53.5%
Havoc/Game
11.8
Havoc Rate
17.0%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
14.3
Yards/Game
442.2
Pts/Drive
2.78
3rd Down%
38.6%
3&Out%
20.9%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — South Alabama vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouth AlabamaOpponents
Scoring
Points447327
Points / Game34.425.2
First Downs
Total281274
Rushing131101
Passing134144
Penalty1629
Rushing
Attempts449455
Yards2,5831,848
Yards / Carry5.84.1
Yards / Game198.7142.2
Touchdowns3219
Passing
Attempts391430
Completions254278
Completion %65.0%64.7%
Yards3,1653,235
Yards / Attempt8.17.5
Touchdowns2118
Interceptions616
Passer Rating147.61134.22
Total Offense
Plays840885
Yards5,7485,083
Yards / Play6.85.7
Yards / Game442.2391.0
Punt Returns
Returns1415
Yards20480
Average14.65.3
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns1644
Yards246900
Average15.420.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5456
Yards2,1372,292
Average39.640.9
Interception Returns
Returns166
Yards36791
Touchdowns31
Fumbles
Fumbles1212
Lost64
Penalties
Penalties10770
Yards927628
Yards / Game71.348.3
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2630:34
Third Downs
Attempts153183
Conversions5971
Conversion %38.6%38.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2025
Conversions1413
Conversion %70.0%52.0%
Red Zone
Trips5548
Scores (TD + FG)4739
Score %85.5%81.3%
Touchdowns3423
TD %61.8%47.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1921
Made1719
Pct89.5%90.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5335
Made5034
Pct94.3%97.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts44
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →