Fourth Down Data
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LOU

Louisville

CardinalsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference0-1#34 (+5.54)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

75· BOverall
Offense
88· BRating
48· CPer play
27· DConsistency
38· DBig plays
Defense
40· CRating
25· DPer play
27· DConsistency
Situational
27· DRed-zone O
14· FRed-zone D
54· C3rd down O
73· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.042
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.002
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.062
Defensive EPA/play
+0.072
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.6%
Def Success Rate
47.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.010
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.85

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.27
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.32
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.20
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.21
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Louisville ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
82th
Opp-adjusted defense
50th
Offensive EPA/play
49th
Defensive EPA/play
25th
Offensive success rate
26th
Explosiveness
38th
Defensive havoc
9th
Points per drive
51th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1California2022OA -0.088 / -0.023similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, pass defense3652UNLV2023OA +0.047 / -0.015similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, rushing offense3523Arkansas State2019OA +0.036 / -0.048similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, pass defense3514Coastal Carolina2024OA -0.004 / -0.025similar: run defense, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3445Florida Atlantic2022OA -0.010 / +0.001similar: turnover rate, passing offense, takeaway rate342

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Ole Miss38-41L+6.5W55O
2vs Villanova------
3vs SMU------
4vs Wake Forest------
5@ NC State------
6vs Florida State------
7@ Syracuse------
9vs Stanford------
10@ Georgia Tech------
11@ North Carolina------
12vs Pittsburgh------
13@ Kentucky------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS1-0
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off27thRush Off84thRed Zone Off28th3rd Down Off55thPass Def28thRush Def31thRed Zone Def14th3rd Down Def74th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06253th+0.07224th
Red Zone-0.19128th+0.63714th
Third Down+0.15755th-0.33074th
No Garbage Time+0.06251th+0.07224th
First Half-0.5044th-0.27976th
Second Half+0.56499th+0.4425th
Early Downs+0.08164th+0.07221th
Passing Downs-0.16527th+0.20128th
Standard Downs+0.20284th+0.01831th
Goal to Go-0.19125th+0.34354th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.6%Rush 57.4%
Havoc/Game
8.0
Havoc Rate
9.9%
TO Margin
+2.0
Explosive/G
15.0
Yards/Game
469.0
Pts/Drive
2.85
3rd Down%
43.8%
3&Out%
30.8%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Louisville vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLouisvilleOpponents
Scoring
Points3841
Points / Game38.041.0
First Downs
Total2024
Rushing1012
Passing910
Penalty12
Rushing
Attempts3941
Yards162152
Yards / Carry4.23.7
Yards / Game162.0152.0
Touchdowns22
Passing
Attempts2937
Completions1821
Completion %62.1%56.8%
Yards307336
Yards / Attempt10.69.1
Touchdowns23
Interceptions01
Passer Rating173.75154.39
Total Offense
Plays6878
Yards469488
Yards / Play6.96.3
Yards / Game469.0488.0
Punt Returns
Returns12
Yards37
Average3.03.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns31
Yards519
Average17.09.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts53
Yards198130
Average39.643.3
Interception Returns
Returns10
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles13
Lost01
Penalties
Penalties96
Yards8260
Yards / Game82.060.0
Time of Possession
Per Game30:5829:02
Third Downs
Attempts1616
Conversions76
Conversion %43.8%37.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts12
Conversions01
Conversion %0.0%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips22
Scores (TD + FG)22
Score %100.0%100.0%
Touchdowns12
TD %50.0%100.0%
Field Goals
Attempts33
Made32
Pct100.0%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts35
Made35
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →