Fourth Down Data
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JXST

Jacksonville State

GamecocksRun-Heavy
Conference USA9-5#58 (+1.93)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

57· COverall
Offense
84· BRating
92· A-Per play
92· A-Consistency
98· A+Big plays
Defense
39· DRating
51· CPer play
17· DConsistency
Situational
95· ARed-zone O
57· CRed-zone D
52· C3rd down O
27· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.056
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.008
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.142
Defensive EPA/play
-0.004
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.6%
Def Success Rate
48.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.146
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.072
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.79

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.67
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.02
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.51
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
-0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#58
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#43
market 15 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
model 22 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Jacksonville State ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
92th
Opp-adjusted defense
40th
Offensive EPA/play
93th
Defensive EPA/play
51th
Offensive success rate
93th
Explosiveness
99th
Defensive havoc
51th
Points per drive
87th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Memphis2018OA +0.059 / -0.073similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, offensive EPA4062Western Michigan2019OA +0.041 / -0.042similar: passing offense, turnover rate, defensive success rate4043UCLA2021OA +0.125 / -0.079similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, TD drive rate3924Tennessee2022OA +0.166 / -0.009similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3755Florida Atlantic2017OA +0.102 / -0.065similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense375

2024 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Coastal Carolina27-55L----
2@ Louisville14-49L+26.5L58.5O
3@ Eastern Michigan34-37L+2.0L54O
4vs Southern Miss44-7W-6.0W60U
6@ Kennesaw State63-24W-20.5W58.5O
7vs New Mexico State54-13W----
9vs Middle Tennessee42-20W+2.5W63U
10@ Liberty31-21W----
11@ Louisiana Tech44-37W-10.0L56O
12vs Florida International34-31W-14.0L58O
13vs Sam Houston21-11W-6.0W56U
14@ Western Kentucky17-19L+1.5L60.75U
15vs Western Kentucky52-12W----
17vs Ohio27-30L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-6
57.1%
O/U Record
9-5
64.3%
Straight Up
9-5
64.3%
Home ATS6-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS6-3
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off77thRush Off97thRed Zone Off96th3rd Down Off52thPass Def16thRush Def72thRed Zone Def57th3rd Down Def28th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.16297th-0.00146th
Red Zone+0.32696th-0.04657th
Third Down+0.12052th+0.18528th
No Garbage Time+0.14493th-0.01856th
First Half+0.15091th+0.03033th
Second Half+0.17797th-0.03363th
Early Downs+0.20099th-0.03151th
Passing Downs+0.11477th+0.13016th
Standard Downs+0.18497th-0.06572th
Goal to Go+0.47598th+0.17815th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 32.7%Rush 67.3%
Havoc/Game
13.0
Havoc Rate
18.1%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
16.4
Yards/Game
441.6
Pts/Drive
2.79
3rd Down%
40.8%
3&Out%
18.8%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 14 games — Jacksonville State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatJacksonville StateOpponents
Scoring
Points504366
Points / Game36.026.1
First Downs
Total318304
Rushing179128
Passing106141
Penalty3335
Rushing
Attempts646574
Yards3,5172,447
Yards / Carry5.44.3
Yards / Game251.2174.8
Touchdowns5121
Passing
Attempts314410
Completions189247
Completion %60.2%60.2%
Yards2,6663,055
Yards / Attempt8.57.5
Touchdowns1421
Interceptions712
Passer Rating141.77133.88
Total Offense
Plays960984
Yards6,1835,502
Yards / Play6.45.6
Yards / Game441.6393.0
Punt Returns
Returns1813
Yards8251
Average4.63.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns750
Yards1461,071
Average20.921.4
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5253
Yards2,1992,235
Average42.342.2
Interception Returns
Returns127
Yards8948
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles2121
Lost812
Penalties
Penalties8386
Yards808796
Yards / Game57.756.9
Time of Possession
Per Game26:5833:02
Third Downs
Attempts174195
Conversions7182
Conversion %40.8%42.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2427
Conversions1312
Conversion %54.2%44.4%
Red Zone
Trips5648
Scores (TD + FG)4935
Score %87.5%72.9%
Touchdowns4224
TD %75.0%50.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2026
Made1419
Pct70.0%73.1%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6442
Made6241
Pct96.9%97.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts22
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →