Fourth Down Data
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MEM

Memphis

TigersRun-Heavy
American Conference8-6#39 (+3.69)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

70· BOverall
Offense
86· BRating
94· APer play
85· BConsistency
93· ABig plays
Defense
34· DRating
25· DPer play
53· CConsistency
Situational
95· ARed-zone O
6· FRed-zone D
70· B3rd down O
7· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.059
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.073
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.148
Defensive EPA/play
+0.061
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.6%
Def Success Rate
45.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.087
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.078
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.00

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.07
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.13
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.27
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.05
own return game
Return Defense
+0.17
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#39
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#56
model 17 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Memphis ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
74th
Opp-adjusted defense
24th
Offensive EPA/play
95th
Defensive EPA/play
25th
Offensive success rate
85th
Explosiveness
94th
Defensive havoc
60th
Points per drive
92th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Jacksonville State2024OA +0.056 / -0.008similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, offensive EPA4062NC State2025OA +0.056 / -0.039similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3943North Carolina2020OA +0.097 / -0.025similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3924Florida Atlantic2017OA +0.102 / -0.065similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3835Houston2018OA +0.075 / -0.078similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense368

2018 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Mercer66-14W-2.0L71P
2@ Navy21-22L-7.0L67U
3vs Georgia State59-22W-28.5W63O
4vs South Alabama52-35W-31.5L66O
5@ Tulane24-40L-14.5L66U
6vs UConn55-14W-36.0W77.5U
7vs UCF30-31L+5.0W80.5U
8@ Missouri33-65L+8.5L69.5O
10@ East Carolina59-41W-11.0W66.5O
11vs Tulsa47-21W-16.5W66O
12@ SMU28-18W-7.5W74.5U
13vs Houston52-31W-9.5W75.5O
14@ UCF41-56L+1.0L65O
17@ Wake Forest34-37L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
7-5-1
58.3%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS5-1
Away ATS2-5
Favorite ATS6-4
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off88thRush Off94thRed Zone Off96th3rd Down Off70thPass Def9thRush Def46thRed Zone Def6th3rd Down Def7th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.14195th+0.06720th
Red Zone+0.31496th+0.2956th
Third Down+0.14170th+0.3727th
No Garbage Time+0.15495th+0.07920th
First Half+0.19398th+0.04830th
Second Half+0.08177th+0.08623th
Early Downs+0.12296th-0.05264th
Passing Downs+0.17288th+0.1839th
Standard Downs+0.12694th-0.00646th
Goal to Go+0.24881th+0.4075th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.2%Rush 59.8%
Havoc/Game
15.6
Havoc Rate
20.0%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
16.9
Yards/Game
523.1
Pts/Drive
3.00
3rd Down%
47.1%
3&Out%
22.2%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 14 games — Memphis vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMemphisOpponents
Scoring
Points601447
Points / Game42.931.9
First Downs
Total344311
Rushing165128
Passing154155
Penalty2528
Rushing
Attempts615588
Yards3,9192,405
Yards / Carry6.44.1
Yards / Game279.9171.8
Touchdowns4832
Passing
Attempts413481
Completions256276
Completion %62.0%57.4%
Yards3,4053,589
Yards / Attempt8.27.5
Touchdowns2824
Interceptions109
Passer Rating148.77132.78
Total Offense
Plays1,0281,069
Yards7,3245,994
Yards / Play7.15.6
Yards / Game523.1428.1
Punt Returns
Returns3115
Yards317141
Average10.29.4
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns5434
Yards959608
Average17.817.9
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts6077
Yards2,5033,364
Average41.743.7
Interception Returns
Returns910
Yards130154
Touchdowns23
Fumbles
Fumbles1627
Lost712
Penalties
Penalties10188
Yards833776
Yards / Game59.555.4
Time of Possession
Per Game29:1330:47
Third Downs
Attempts191222
Conversions9088
Conversion %47.1%39.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1734
Conversions1119
Conversion %64.7%55.9%
Red Zone
Trips6354
Scores (TD + FG)5645
Score %88.9%83.3%
Touchdowns4640
TD %73.0%74.1%
Field Goals
Attempts2014
Made1512
Pct75.0%85.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts7955
Made7651
Pct96.2%92.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts14
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →