Fourth Down Data
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NCSU

NC State

WolfpackBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference8-5#64 (+0.57)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

53· COverall
Offense
65· CRating
85· BPer play
66· CConsistency
75· BBig plays
Defense
48· CRating
19· DPer play
34· DConsistency
Situational
98· A+Red-zone O
57· CRed-zone D
72· B3rd down O
3· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.056
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.039
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.116
Defensive EPA/play
+0.069
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.6%
Def Success Rate
46.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.047
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.042
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.63

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.06
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.51
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.33
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.12
own return game
Return Defense
-0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#64
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#70
model 6 higher
Recruiting Rank
#36
recruiting 28 spots higher
12 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where NC State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
71th
Opp-adjusted defense
36th
Offensive EPA/play
86th
Defensive EPA/play
19th
Offensive success rate
64th
Explosiveness
76th
Defensive havoc
28th
Points per drive
76th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Memphis2018OA +0.059 / -0.073similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3942Oregon State2019OA +0.104 / -0.130similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3893South Alabama2025OA +0.027 / -0.099similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, run defense3704Baylor2024OA +0.032 / -0.011similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3565Houston2018OA +0.075 / -0.078similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, run defense355

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs East Carolina24-17W----
2vs Virginia35-31W-3.0W54.5O
3@ Wake Forest34-24W----
4@ Duke33-45L+3.3L68.5O
5vs Virginia Tech21-23L-10.0L57.5U
6vs Campbell56-10W-42.5W61.5O
7@ Notre Dame7-36L+16.5L43.5U
9@ Pittsburgh34-53L+12.5L78.5O
10vs Georgia Tech48-36W+4.5W59O
12@ Miami7-41L+27.5L50.5U
13vs Florida State21-11W----
14vs North Carolina42-19W-7.0W49O
17vs Memphis31-7W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS6-2
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS5-2
Underdog ATS2-4
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off58thRush Off90thRed Zone Off99th3rd Down Off73thPass Def13thRush Def46thRed Zone Def58th3rd Down Def3th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08880th+0.05125th
Red Zone+0.35899th-0.04058th
Third Down+0.19373th+0.4373th
No Garbage Time+0.11487th+0.06520th
First Half+0.15493th+0.07318th
Second Half+0.02064th+0.02836th
Early Downs+0.09991th-0.02250th
Passing Downs+0.02558th+0.13013th
Standard Downs+0.12390th+0.00446th
Goal to Go+0.25185th+0.23617th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.2%Rush 50.8%
Havoc/Game
11.5
Havoc Rate
16.3%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
13.8
Yards/Game
391.2
Pts/Drive
2.63
3rd Down%
41.6%
3&Out%
20.6%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — NC State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNC StateOpponents
Scoring
Points393353
Points / Game30.227.2
First Downs
Total264276
Rushing9192
Passing145158
Penalty2826
Rushing
Attempts426418
Yards1,8911,804
Yards / Carry4.44.3
Yards / Game145.5138.8
Touchdowns2717
Passing
Attempts413470
Completions280295
Completion %67.8%62.8%
Yards3,1943,551
Yards / Attempt7.77.6
Touchdowns2622
Interceptions109
Passer Rating148.69137.85
Total Offense
Plays839888
Yards5,0855,355
Yards / Play6.16.0
Yards / Game391.2411.9
Punt Returns
Returns1415
Yards59201
Average4.213.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1627
Yards292653
Average18.324.2
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5745
Yards2,4781,905
Average43.542.3
Interception Returns
Returns910
Yards157252
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1010
Lost37
Penalties
Penalties7291
Yards699841
Yards / Game53.864.7
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4830:08
Third Downs
Attempts166184
Conversions6984
Conversion %41.6%45.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2622
Conversions139
Conversion %50.0%40.9%
Red Zone
Trips4450
Scores (TD + FG)4042
Score %90.9%84.0%
Touchdowns3530
TD %79.5%60.0%
Field Goals
Attempts930
Made622
Pct66.7%73.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5237
Made5137
Pct98.1%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts24
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →