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ORST
Oregon State
BeaversBalancedPac-12 Conference5-7#53 (+2.72)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
61· COverall
Offense
87· BRating
79· BPer play
69· CConsistency
78· BBig plays
Defense
22· DRating
1· FPer play
21· DConsistency
Situational
98· A+Red-zone O
39· DRed-zone D
90· A-3rd down O
7· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.104
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.130
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.095
Defensive EPA/play
+0.169
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.8%
Def Success Rate
48.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
28.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.074
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.036
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.66
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.35
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.78
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.68
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.02
own return game
Return Defense
-0.22
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#53
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#60
model 7 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Oregon State ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense87th
Opp-adjusted defense5th
Offensive EPA/play80th
Defensive EPA/play1th
Offensive success rate65th
Explosiveness78th
Defensive havoc47th
Points per drive81th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1NC State2025OA +0.056 / -0.039similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, passing offense3882Temple2025OA +0.068 / -0.135similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3583Memphis2018OA +0.059 / -0.073similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, takeaway rate3514Stanford2020OA +0.023 / -0.041similar: takeaway rate, run defense, offensive EPA3505Stanford2020OA +0.023 / -0.041similar: takeaway rate, run defense, offensive EPA350
2019 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Oklahoma State | 36-52 | L | +13.5 | L | 73.5 | O |
| 2 | @ Hawai'i | 28-31 | L | +6.5 | W | 77 | U |
| 3 | vs Cal Poly | 45-7 | W | -16.5 | W | 75.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Stanford | 28-31 | L | +3.5 | W | 56 | O |
| 6 | @ UCLA | 48-31 | W | +4.5 | W | 63.5 | O |
| 7 | vs Utah | 7-52 | L | +14.5 | L | 60 | U |
| 8 | @ California | 21-17 | W | +10.0 | W | 51 | U |
| 10 | @ Arizona | 56-38 | W | +5.5 | W | 72 | O |
| 11 | vs Washington | 7-19 | L | +11.0 | L | 64.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Arizona State | 35-34 | W | +1.5 | W | 56.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Washington State | 53-54 | L | +10.5 | W | 77.5 | O |
| 14 | @ Oregon | 10-24 | L | +20.0 | W | 65 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
9-3
75.0%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS6-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS8-3
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.086 | 81th | +0.145 | 4th |
| Red Zone | +0.539 | 99th | +0.036 | 39th |
| Third Down | +0.291 | 91th | +0.309 | 7th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.095 | 80th | +0.169 | 2th |
| First Half | +0.140 | 87th | +0.189 | 2th |
| Second Half | +0.024 | 54th | +0.105 | 13th |
| Early Downs | +0.024 | 60th | +0.012 | 47th |
| Passing Downs | +0.150 | 81th | +0.347 | 1th |
| Standard Downs | +0.055 | 72th | +0.035 | 31th |
| Goal to Go | +0.430 | 95th | +0.002 | 45th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 50.6%Rush 49.4%
Havoc/Game
14.0
Havoc Rate
18.5%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
16.1
Yards/Game
411.8
Pts/Drive
2.66
3rd Down%
42.3%
3&Out%
23.7%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 12 games — Oregon State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Oregon State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 374 | 390 |
| Points / Game | 31.2 | 32.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 268 | 291 |
| Rushing | 111 | 114 |
| Passing | 140 | 149 |
| Penalty | 17 | 28 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 410 | 469 |
| Yards | 1,880 | 2,034 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.6 | 4.3 |
| Yards / Game | 156.7 | 169.5 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 21 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 420 | 415 |
| Completions | 260 | 262 |
| Completion % | 61.9% | 63.1% |
| Yards | 3,061 | 3,314 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.3 | 8.0 |
| Touchdowns | 30 | 28 |
| Interceptions | 4 | 8 |
| Passer Rating | 144.79 | 148.62 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 830 | 884 |
| Yards | 4,941 | 5,348 |
| Yards / Play | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Yards / Game | 411.8 | 445.7 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 23 |
| Yards | 66 | 235 |
| Average | 5.1 | 10.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 32 | 34 |
| Yards | 693 | 901 |
| Average | 21.7 | 26.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 59 | 39 |
| Yards | 2,511 | 1,612 |
| Average | 42.6 | 41.3 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 4 |
| Yards | 55 | 82 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 6 | 14 |
| Lost | 2 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 78 | 61 |
| Yards | 701 | 541 |
| Yards / Game | 58.4 | 45.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:28 | 31:32 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 163 | 171 |
| Conversions | 69 | 76 |
| Conversion % | 42.3% | 44.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 27 |
| Conversions | 13 | 21 |
| Conversion % | 54.2% | 77.8% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 39 | 51 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 36 | 40 |
| Score % | 92.3% | 78.4% |
| Touchdowns | 33 | 31 |
| TD % | 84.6% | 60.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 9 | 23 |
| Made | 4 | 11 |
| Pct | 44.4% | 47.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 49 | 46 |
| Made | 48 | 45 |
| Pct | 98.0% | 97.8% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 6 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.