Fourth Down Data
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CIN

Cincinnati

BearcatsRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference1-0#52 (+3.68)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

62· COverall
Offense
45· CRating
53· CPer play
62· CConsistency
66· CBig plays
Defense
71· BRating
51· CPer play
39· DConsistency
Situational
84· BRed-zone O
70· BRed-zone D
40· C3rd down O
25· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.005
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.002
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.089
Defensive EPA/play
-0.092
lower = better
Off Success Rate
52.5%
Def Success Rate
46.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.181
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.83

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.01
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.46
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.48
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
+0.19
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Cincinnati ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
51th
Opp-adjusted defense
53th
Offensive EPA/play
54th
Defensive EPA/play
51th
Offensive success rate
69th
Explosiveness
67th
Defensive havoc
79th
Points per drive
50th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arizona State2018OA +0.072 / -0.049similar: offensive success rate, rushing offense, turnover rate3442Pittsburgh2018OA +0.031 / +0.003similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, TD drive rate3443Jacksonville State2025OA -0.063 / -0.020similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, rushing offense3434UAB2017OA -0.060 / -0.004similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3315UTSA2020OA -0.013 / -0.000similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, TD drive rate316

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Boston College34-15W-7.0W51.5U
2vs Western Carolina------
3vs Miami (OH)------
4vs Kansas State------
5@ Arizona------
7@ West Virginia------
8vs Texas Tech------
9vs Utah------
10@ Houston------
11@ Iowa State------
12vs Colorado------
13@ BYU------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off45thRush Off72thRed Zone Off85th3rd Down Off40thPass Def57thRush Def22thRed Zone Def71th3rd Down Def26th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08961th-0.00639th
Red Zone+0.54985th-0.44271th
Third Down-0.03140th+0.24026th
No Garbage Time+0.08956th-0.09251th
First Half-0.01041th-0.12452th
Second Half+0.16869th+0.09730th
Early Downs+0.16875th+0.07920th
Passing Downs+0.00545th-0.14657th
Standard Downs+0.13672th+0.08222th
Goal to Go+0.50566th-0.81095th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 24.6%Rush 75.4%
Havoc/Game
-
Havoc Rate
27.0%
TO Margin
-
Explosive/G
-
Yards/Game
-
Pts/Drive
2.83
3rd Down%
-
3&Out%
25.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Cincinnati vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCincinnatiOpponents
Scoring
Points3415
Points / Game34.015.0
First Downs
Total1724
Rushing1111
Passing510
Penalty13
Rushing
Attempts4638
Yards254165
Yards / Carry5.54.3
Yards / Game254.0165.0
Touchdowns31
Passing
Attempts1535
Completions1118
Completion %73.3%51.4%
Yards85223
Yards / Attempt5.76.4
Touchdowns11
Interceptions01
Passer Rating142.93108.66
Total Offense
Plays6173
Yards339388
Yards / Play5.65.3
Yards / Game339.0388.0
Punt Returns
Returns22
Yards124
Average6.02.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns02
Yards018
Average—9.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts44
Yards209178
Average52.344.5
Interception Returns
Returns10
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles33
Lost01
Penalties
Penalties77
Yards6937
Yards / Game69.037.0
Time of Possession
Per Game28:4131:19
Third Downs
Attempts1213
Conversions54
Conversion %41.7%30.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts14
Conversions11
Conversion %100.0%25.0%
Red Zone
Trips43
Scores (TD + FG)41
Score %100.0%33.3%
Touchdowns41
TD %100.0%33.3%
Field Goals
Attempts21
Made20
Pct100.0%0.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts41
Made41
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →