Fourth Down Data
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NEV

Nevada

Wolf PackBalanced
Mountain West Conference3-10#115 (-5.91)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

15· DOverall
Offense
36· DRating
60· CPer play
62· CConsistency
61· CBig plays
Defense
13· FRating
10· FPer play
16· DConsistency
Situational
89· BRed-zone O
29· DRed-zone D
83· B3rd down O
2· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.014
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.050
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.033
Defensive EPA/play
+0.111
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.6%
Def Success Rate
49.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.078
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.084
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.04

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.18
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.49
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.62
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.12
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#115
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#118
model 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
recruiting 35 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Nevada ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
62th
Opp-adjusted defense
10th
Offensive EPA/play
60th
Defensive EPA/play
10th
Offensive success rate
69th
Explosiveness
61th
Defensive havoc
12th
Points per drive
31th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arizona State2022OA +0.027 / -0.075similar: run defense, passing offense, havoc rate4402Michigan2020OA +0.019 / -0.036similar: pass defense, havoc rate, defensive success rate3643Arizona2019OA -0.007 / -0.040similar: run defense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3624Arkansas2017OA -0.037 / -0.079similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3465Eastern Michigan2022OA +0.042 / -0.141similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate341

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs SMU24-29L+27.5W55.5U
1@ Troy28-26W+9.0W44.5O
2vs Georgia Southern17-20L+3.0P55U
3@ Minnesota0-27L+17.5L44U
4vs Eastern Washington49-16W-9.5W55.5O
6@ San José State31-35L+7.0W51O
7vs Oregon State42-37W+4.0W48.5O
8vs Fresno State21-24L----
9@ Hawai'i13-34L-2.5L46.5O
10vs Colorado State21-38L+1.5L45.5O
11@ Boise State21-28L+24.0W60.5U
13vs Air Force19-22L-3.5L45U
14@ UNLV14-38L+17.5L55U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6-1
50.0%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
3-10
23.1%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
LLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off82thRush Off58thRed Zone Off90th3rd Down Off84thPass Def9thRush Def16thRed Zone Def29th3rd Down Def2th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06173th+0.1119th
Red Zone+0.25090th+0.09629th
Third Down+0.27784th+0.4032th
No Garbage Time+0.02154th+0.10311th
First Half+0.00249th+0.10812th
Second Half+0.11988th+0.11512th
Early Downs-0.00954th+0.04122th
Passing Downs+0.14382th+0.1829th
Standard Downs+0.02058th+0.07716th
Goal to Go+0.09262th-0.21583th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.2%Rush 55.8%
Havoc/Game
9.8
Havoc Rate
14.7%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
13.9
Yards/Game
376.1
Pts/Drive
2.04
3rd Down%
44.6%
3&Out%
16.3%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Nevada vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNevadaOpponents
Scoring
Points300374
Points / Game23.128.8
First Downs
Total253297
Rushing114135
Passing117126
Penalty2236
Rushing
Attempts462496
Yards2,1252,507
Yards / Carry4.65.1
Yards / Game163.5192.8
Touchdowns2131
Passing
Attempts366347
Completions247210
Completion %67.5%60.5%
Yards2,7642,582
Yards / Attempt7.67.4
Touchdowns1913
Interceptions811
Passer Rating143.68129.05
Total Offense
Plays828843
Yards4,8895,089
Yards / Play5.96.0
Yards / Game376.1391.5
Punt Returns
Returns107
Yards7437
Average7.45.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3428
Yards612545
Average18.019.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4841
Yards1,9371,683
Average40.441.0
Interception Returns
Returns118
Yards9156
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1611
Lost72
Penalties
Penalties9970
Yards935639
Yards / Game71.949.2
Time of Possession
Per Game30:5228:58
Third Downs
Attempts168165
Conversions7587
Conversion %44.6%52.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2911
Conversions157
Conversion %51.7%63.6%
Red Zone
Trips3855
Scores (TD + FG)3448
Score %89.5%87.3%
Touchdowns2936
TD %76.3%65.5%
Field Goals
Attempts820
Made517
Pct62.5%85.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3839
Made3739
Pct97.4%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts48
Made13
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →