Fourth Down Data
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ARIZ

Arizona

WildcatsBalanced
Big 12 Conference4-8#110 (-10.62)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

18· DOverall
Offense
35· DRating
66· CPer play
47· CConsistency
71· BBig plays
Defense
21· DRating
21· DPer play
6· FConsistency
Situational
72· BRed-zone O
28· DRed-zone D
87· B3rd down O
9· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.007
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.040
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.049
Defensive EPA/play
+0.077
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.5%
Def Success Rate
51.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.028
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.204
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.08

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.24
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.97
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.18
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.05
own return game
Return Defense
-0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#110
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#52
recruiting 58 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Arizona ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
49th
Opp-adjusted defense
34th
Offensive EPA/play
66th
Defensive EPA/play
21th
Offensive success rate
53th
Explosiveness
72th
Defensive havoc
4th
Points per drive
46th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1West Virginia2022OA +0.016 / -0.049similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA4162North Texas2020OA +0.038 / -0.073similar: run defense, rushing offense, pass defense3773Arizona State2022OA +0.027 / -0.075similar: run defense, turnover rate, defensive success rate3754UAB2025OA -0.033 / -0.164similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, offensive success rate3695Utah State2023OA +0.011 / -0.063similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, offensive success rate364

2019 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ Hawai'i38-45L----
2vs Northern Arizona65-41W-28.0L63.5O
3vs Texas Tech28-14W+1.0W75U
5vs UCLA20-17W-6.5L72.5U
6@ Colorado35-30W+2.5W63.5O
7vs Washington27-51L+6.0L60O
8@ USC14-41L+10.0L68U
9@ Stanford31-41L+3.0L54O
10vs Oregon State38-56L-5.5L72O
12@ Oregon6-34L+28.0P69U
13vs Utah7-35L+24.5L55.5U
14@ Arizona State14-24L+13.0W60.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-8-1
27.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS0-4
Underdog ATS3-4
Last 5 ATS
LLPLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off66thRush Off77thRed Zone Off73th3rd Down Off88thPass Def22thRush Def3thRed Zone Def29th3rd Down Def9th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06872th+0.1177th
Red Zone+0.11473th+0.08229th
Third Down+0.23488th+0.2809th
No Garbage Time+0.06372th+0.07921th
First Half+0.06869th+0.04931th
Second Half+0.06972th+0.1951th
Early Downs+0.01857th+0.1434th
Passing Downs+0.07466th+0.11722th
Standard Downs+0.06577th+0.1173th
Goal to Go+0.25986th+0.09026th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.3%Rush 51.7%
Havoc/Game
10.3
Havoc Rate
13.3%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
15.7
Yards/Game
440.1
Pts/Drive
2.08
3rd Down%
44.1%
3&Out%
17.4%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 12 games — Arizona vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArizonaOpponents
Scoring
Points323429
Points / Game26.935.8
First Downs
Total270293
Rushing111122
Passing139145
Penalty2026
Rushing
Attempts451459
Yards2,0882,179
Yards / Carry4.64.7
Yards / Game174.0181.6
Touchdowns1927
Passing
Attempts422430
Completions261282
Completion %61.8%65.6%
Yards3,1933,478
Yards / Attempt7.68.1
Touchdowns2326
Interceptions1211
Passer Rating137.70148.36
Total Offense
Plays873889
Yards5,2815,657
Yards / Play6.06.4
Yards / Game440.1471.4
Punt Returns
Returns1419
Yards89152
Average6.48.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3410
Yards716222
Average21.122.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5947
Yards2,2902,097
Average38.844.6
Interception Returns
Returns1112
Yards12988
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles108
Lost64
Penalties
Penalties7683
Yards677779
Yards / Game56.464.9
Time of Possession
Per Game27:2432:36
Third Downs
Attempts186168
Conversions8279
Conversion %44.1%47.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2018
Conversions136
Conversion %65.0%33.3%
Red Zone
Trips3553
Scores (TD + FG)3048
Score %85.7%90.6%
Touchdowns2233
TD %62.9%62.3%
Field Goals
Attempts1719
Made1017
Pct58.8%89.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3953
Made3752
Pct94.9%98.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts31
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →