Fourth Down Data
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ASU

Arizona State

Sun DevilsBalanced
Big 12 Conference3-9#116 (-6.18)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

15· DOverall
Offense
48· CRating
70· BPer play
75· BConsistency
88· BBig plays
Defense
8· FRating
8· FPer play
3· FConsistency
Situational
87· BRed-zone O
23· DRed-zone D
44· C3rd down O
8· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.027
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.075
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.059
Defensive EPA/play
+0.116
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.8%
Def Success Rate
52.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.057
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.013
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.28

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.63
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.17
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.88
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
-0.81
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#116
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#96
market 20 higher
Recruiting Rank
#34
recruiting 82 spots higher
13 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Arizona State ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
60th
Opp-adjusted defense
19th
Offensive EPA/play
71th
Defensive EPA/play
9th
Offensive success rate
66th
Explosiveness
89th
Defensive havoc
10th
Points per drive
56th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Nevada2024OA +0.014 / -0.050similar: run defense, passing offense, havoc rate4402UCLA2017OA +0.065 / -0.053similar: run defense, pass defense, defensive EPA3983Louisiana Tech2023OA -0.009 / -0.137similar: run defense, defensive EPA, havoc rate3764Arizona2019OA -0.007 / -0.040similar: run defense, turnover rate, defensive success rate3755Ole Miss2017OA +0.034 / -0.091similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, run defense374

2022 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Northern Arizona40-3W----
2@ Oklahoma State17-34L+12.5L--
3vs Eastern Michigan21-30L-20.5L56.5U
4vs Utah13-34L+15.5L54U
5@ USC25-42L+25.0W60.5O
6vs Washington45-38W+13.5W56O
8@ Stanford14-15L+2.5W54U
9@ Colorado42-34W-13.5L46.5O
10vs UCLA36-50L+10.5L66O
11@ Washington State18-28L+7.5L61U
12vs Oregon State7-31L+4.0W65O
13@ Arizona35-38L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
5-6
45.5%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
LLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off73thRush Off67thRed Zone Off88th3rd Down Off44thPass Def39thRush Def6thRed Zone Def24th3rd Down Def8th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05769th+0.08513th
Red Zone+0.17888th+0.12524th
Third Down+0.05244th+0.3918th
No Garbage Time+0.06173th+0.1237th
First Half+0.09779th+0.10414th
Second Half+0.01860th+0.06319th
Early Downs+0.00959th+0.06615th
Passing Downs+0.10573th+0.02239th
Standard Downs+0.03267th+0.1136th
Goal to Go+0.44598th+0.02044th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.2%Rush 48.8%
Havoc/Game
10.6
Havoc Rate
14.6%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
15.7
Yards/Game
387.2
Pts/Drive
2.28
3rd Down%
39.7%
3&Out%
20.3%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 12 games — Arizona State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArizona StateOpponents
Scoring
Points313377
Points / Game26.131.4
First Downs
Total253288
Rushing88120
Passing143138
Penalty2230
Rushing
Attempts385435
Yards1,6232,257
Yards / Carry4.25.2
Yards / Game135.3188.1
Touchdowns2131
Passing
Attempts404406
Completions270246
Completion %66.8%60.6%
Yards3,0232,801
Yards / Attempt7.56.9
Touchdowns1814
Interceptions1011
Passer Rating139.44124.50
Total Offense
Plays789841
Yards4,6465,058
Yards / Play5.96.0
Yards / Game387.2421.5
Punt Returns
Returns1921
Yards63265
Average3.312.6
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns3324
Yards757431
Average22.918.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5142
Yards2,3361,772
Average45.842.2
Interception Returns
Returns1110
Yards113116
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1214
Lost81
Penalties
Penalties8767
Yards868654
Yards / Game72.354.5
Time of Possession
Per Game30:4229:15
Third Downs
Attempts151166
Conversions6082
Conversion %39.7%49.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1917
Conversions127
Conversion %63.2%41.2%
Red Zone
Trips4656
Scores (TD + FG)3950
Score %84.8%89.3%
Touchdowns3238
TD %69.6%67.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1420
Made1118
Pct78.6%90.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3444
Made3443
Pct100.0%97.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts62
Made32
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →