Fourth Down Data
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UCLA

UCLA

BruinsBalanced
Big Ten Conference6-7#69 (+0.86)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

48· COverall
Offense
68· CRating
77· BPer play
74· BConsistency
72· BBig plays
Defense
38· DRating
11· FPer play
6· FConsistency
Situational
55· CRed-zone O
52· CRed-zone D
68· C3rd down O
44· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.065
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.053
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.062
Defensive EPA/play
+0.108
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.6%
Def Success Rate
51.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.046
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.073
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.35

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.39
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.50
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.59
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.12
own return game
Return Defense
-0.18
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#69
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#16
recruiting 53 spots higher
36 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UCLA ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
73th
Opp-adjusted defense
33th
Offensive EPA/play
78th
Defensive EPA/play
11th
Offensive success rate
78th
Explosiveness
73th
Defensive havoc
17th
Points per drive
68th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Georgia Southern2022OA +0.096 / -0.166similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, run defense3982Arizona State2022OA +0.027 / -0.075similar: run defense, pass defense, defensive EPA3983USC2019OA +0.130 / -0.008similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, rushing offense3774Virginia2021OA +0.166 / -0.113similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, takeaway rate3715Washington State2019OA +0.109 / -0.128similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, passing offense366

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Texas A&M45-44W+6.0L60U
2vs Hawai'i56-23W-24.0W63.5O
3@ Memphis45-48L-3.0L72O
4@ Stanford34-58L+6.5L59O
5vs Colorado27-23W-7.5L66.5U
7@ Arizona30-47L-3.0L76O
8vs Oregon31-14W-6.0W68U
9@ Washington23-44L+18.0L59.5O
10@ Utah17-48L+9.5L53.5O
11vs Arizona State44-37W-3.0W65.5O
12@ USC23-28L+14.5W69.5U
13vs California30-27W-7.0L66U
18vs Kansas State17-35L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS1-5
Favorite ATS3-4
Underdog ATS1-4
Last 5 ATS
LLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off38thRush Off96thRed Zone Off56th3rd Down Off68thPass Def21thRush Def16thRed Zone Def53th3rd Down Def44th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07882th+0.09513th
Red Zone+0.02256th-0.01253th
Third Down+0.09468th+0.01944th
No Garbage Time+0.06278th+0.10314th
First Half+0.03971th+0.05132th
Second Half+0.11989th+0.1375th
Early Downs+0.09490th+0.04922th
Passing Downs-0.05338th+0.12421th
Standard Downs+0.14496th+0.08216th
Goal to Go+0.43195th+0.22816th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 57.5%Rush 42.5%
Havoc/Game
11.8
Havoc Rate
14.9%
TO Margin
-0.7
Explosive/G
16.0
Yards/Game
457.8
Pts/Drive
2.35
3rd Down%
41.2%
3&Out%
19.3%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — UCLA vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUCLAOpponents
Scoring
Points422476
Points / Game32.536.6
First Downs
Total304320
Rushing98165
Passing183112
Penalty2343
Rushing
Attempts396649
Yards1,4743,736
Yards / Carry3.75.8
Yards / Game113.4287.4
Touchdowns1935
Passing
Attempts536355
Completions338203
Completion %63.1%57.2%
Yards4,4782,552
Yards / Attempt8.47.2
Touchdowns3119
Interceptions108
Passer Rating148.59130.72
Total Offense
Plays9321,004
Yards5,9526,288
Yards / Play6.46.3
Yards / Game457.8483.7
Punt Returns
Returns1419
Yards73240
Average5.212.6
Touchdowns02
Kickoff Returns
Returns5448
Yards1,0391,172
Average19.224.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5751
Yards2,4042,089
Average42.241.0
Interception Returns
Returns810
Yards82212
Touchdowns22
Fumbles
Fumbles1812
Lost125
Penalties
Penalties10698
Yards977872
Yards / Game75.267.1
Time of Possession
Per Game26:2933:31
Third Downs
Attempts182185
Conversions7571
Conversion %41.2%38.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2025
Conversions1312
Conversion %65.0%48.0%
Red Zone
Trips5369
Scores (TD + FG)4661
Score %86.8%88.4%
Touchdowns3441
TD %64.2%59.4%
Field Goals
Attempts2129
Made1723
Pct81.0%79.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5057
Made4955
Pct98.0%96.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts31
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →