Fourth Down Data
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GASO

Georgia Southern

EaglesPass-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference6-7#82 (-1.55)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

40· COverall
Offense
67· CRating
81· BPer play
77· BConsistency
57· CBig plays
Defense
13· FRating
10· FPer play
13· FConsistency
Situational
48· CRed-zone O
68· CRed-zone D
77· B3rd down O
37· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.096
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.166
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.097
Defensive EPA/play
+0.112
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.3%
Def Success Rate
49.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
28.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.015
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.102
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.47

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.47
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.04
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.04
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.35
own return game
Return Defense
+0.74
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#82
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#87
model 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#64
recruiting 18 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Georgia Southern ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
80th
Opp-adjusted defense
2th
Offensive EPA/play
81th
Defensive EPA/play
10th
Offensive success rate
79th
Explosiveness
58th
Defensive havoc
21th
Points per drive
66th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UCLA2017OA +0.065 / -0.053similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, run defense3982Baylor2025OA +0.076 / -0.087similar: defensive EPA, run defense, defensive success rate3873West Virginia2022OA +0.016 / -0.049similar: havoc rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3814North Texas2024OA +0.029 / -0.031similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, takeaway rate3735Northern Illinois2021OA +0.071 / -0.096similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, run defense362

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Morgan State59-7W-39.5W53.5O
2@ Nebraska45-42W+23.5W62.5O
3@ UAB21-35L+12.0L57U
4vs Ball State34-23W-9.5W67.5U
5@ Coastal Carolina30-34L+10.5W64P
6@ Georgia State33-41L+2.5L66.5O
7vs James Madison45-38W+12.0W67O
8@ Old Dominion28-23W+2.5W65.5U
10vs South Alabama31-38L+3.0L59.5U
11@ Louisiana17-36L----
12vs Marshall10-23L+4.5L54U
13vs App State51-48W+4.5W63O
18@ Buffalo21-23L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
6-6-1
50.0%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS2-1
Underdog ATS5-5
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off62thRush Off94thRed Zone Off48th3rd Down Off78thPass Def48thRush Def2thRed Zone Def69th3rd Down Def37th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.10586th+0.09710th
Red Zone-0.00248th-0.13869th
Third Down+0.22178th+0.11337th
No Garbage Time+0.09784th+0.11210th
First Half+0.05367th+0.1347th
Second Half+0.15896th+0.06219th
Early Downs+0.09087th+0.1434th
Passing Downs+0.05562th-0.01248th
Standard Downs+0.13094th+0.1502th
Goal to Go-0.11836th-0.20976th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 62.3%Rush 37.7%
Havoc/Game
11.8
Havoc Rate
15.7%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
18.0
Yards/Game
466.7
Pts/Drive
2.47
3rd Down%
46.7%
3&Out%
15.8%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — Georgia Southern vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatGeorgia SouthernOpponents
Scoring
Points425411
Points / Game32.731.6
First Downs
Total326319
Rushing100163
Passing191141
Penalty3515
Rushing
Attempts370542
Yards1,7783,002
Yards / Carry4.85.5
Yards / Game136.8230.9
Touchdowns2329
Passing
Attempts612433
Completions374254
Completion %61.1%58.7%
Yards4,2893,339
Yards / Attempt7.07.7
Touchdowns2819
Interceptions1611
Passer Rating129.85132.84
Total Offense
Plays982975
Yards6,0676,341
Yards / Play6.26.5
Yards / Game466.7487.8
Punt Returns
Returns2019
Yards186195
Average9.310.3
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2628
Yards460601
Average17.721.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5251
Yards2,2242,107
Average42.841.3
Interception Returns
Returns1116
Yards61160
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles89
Lost55
Penalties
Penalties6591
Yards590816
Yards / Game45.462.8
Time of Possession
Per Game27:3032:19
Third Downs
Attempts195187
Conversions9180
Conversion %46.7%42.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2322
Conversions1312
Conversion %56.5%54.5%
Red Zone
Trips5262
Scores (TD + FG)4747
Score %90.4%75.8%
Touchdowns3229
TD %61.5%46.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2230
Made1823
Pct81.8%76.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5047
Made4946
Pct98.0%97.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts22
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →