Fourth Down Data
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UNT

North Texas

Mean GreenPass-Heavy
American Conference6-7#78 (-0.69)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

42· COverall
Offense
71· BRating
75· BPer play
53· CConsistency
81· BBig plays
Defense
23· DRating
24· DPer play
33· DConsistency
Situational
29· DRed-zone O
56· CRed-zone D
56· C3rd down O
68· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.029
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.031
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.064
Defensive EPA/play
+0.059
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.7%
Def Success Rate
46.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.005
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.108
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.58

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.37
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.45
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.00
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.00
own return game
Return Defense
+0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#78
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#74
market 4 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
model 2 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where North Texas ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
79th
Opp-adjusted defense
19th
Offensive EPA/play
76th
Defensive EPA/play
25th
Offensive success rate
62th
Explosiveness
81th
Defensive havoc
6th
Points per drive
75th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1South Carolina2018OA +0.092 / -0.024similar: pass defense, run defense, takeaway rate3892Georgia Southern2022OA +0.096 / -0.166similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, takeaway rate3733Baylor2018OA +0.089 / -0.076similar: turnover rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA3634North Carolina2023OA +0.046 / -0.032similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3615Memphis2021OA +0.054 / -0.036similar: defensive EPA, run defense, takeaway rate354

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ South Alabama52-38W+5.5W64.5O
2vs Stephen F. Austin35-20W-23.0L72.5U
3@ Texas Tech21-66L+9.5L69O
4vs Wyoming44-17W-7.5W55.5O
5vs Tulsa52-20W-6.5W68O
7@ Florida Atlantic41-37W-7.0L60O
8@ Memphis44-52L+10.5W66.75O
9vs Tulane37-45L+7.5L65.5O
11vs Army3-14L-2.0L72.5O
12@ UTSA27-48L----
13vs East Carolina28-40L-3.0L73.5U
14@ Temple24-17W-11.0L64.5U
19@ Texas State28-30L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-8
38.5%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS2-5
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
LLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off73thRush Off66thRed Zone Off29th3rd Down Off57thPass Def28thRush Def25thRed Zone Def57th3rd Down Def69th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05972th+0.06022th
Red Zone-0.08929th-0.04457th
Third Down+0.12957th+0.01269th
No Garbage Time+0.05172th+0.06323th
First Half+0.01753th+0.07420th
Second Half+0.10381th+0.04331th
Early Downs+0.02266th+0.08010th
Passing Downs+0.09873th+0.07928th
Standard Downs+0.03866th+0.05025th
Goal to Go-0.13326th+0.12228th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 59.4%Rush 40.6%
Havoc/Game
10.3
Havoc Rate
13.6%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
17.0
Yards/Game
488.8
Pts/Drive
2.58
3rd Down%
36.9%
3&Out%
16.3%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — North Texas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorth TexasOpponents
Scoring
Points436444
Points / Game33.534.2
First Downs
Total309299
Rushing87132
Passing188143
Penalty3424
Rushing
Attempts384544
Yards2,0882,547
Yards / Carry5.44.7
Yards / Game160.6195.9
Touchdowns2428
Passing
Attempts562426
Completions353261
Completion %62.8%61.3%
Yards4,2673,440
Yards / Attempt7.68.1
Touchdowns3323
Interceptions1411
Passer Rating140.98141.75
Total Offense
Plays946970
Yards6,3555,987
Yards / Play6.76.2
Yards / Game488.8460.5
Punt Returns
Returns166
Yards1548
Average9.61.3
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2820
Yards601320
Average21.516.0
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts4756
Yards1,9282,270
Average41.040.5
Interception Returns
Returns1114
Yards146236
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles147
Lost85
Penalties
Penalties9191
Yards773830
Yards / Game59.563.8
Time of Possession
Per Game26:4733:12
Third Downs
Attempts179196
Conversions6679
Conversion %36.9%40.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts4429
Conversions2113
Conversion %47.7%44.8%
Red Zone
Trips5656
Scores (TD + FG)4249
Score %75.0%87.5%
Touchdowns3333
TD %58.9%58.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1626
Made1123
Pct68.8%88.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5548
Made5547
Pct100.0%97.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts36
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →