Fourth Down Data
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UNC

North Carolina

Tar HeelsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference8-5#60 (+1.06)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

56· COverall
Offense
82· BRating
78· BPer play
86· BConsistency
59· CBig plays
Defense
45· CRating
36· DPer play
32· DConsistency
Situational
22· DRed-zone O
65· CRed-zone D
92· A-3rd down O
36· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.046
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.032
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.079
Defensive EPA/play
+0.042
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.9%
Def Success Rate
46.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.037
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.151
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.69

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.33
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.60
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.60
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.02
own return game
Return Defense
-0.15
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#60
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#33
market 27 higher
Recruiting Rank
#17
recruiting 43 spots higher
36 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where North Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
69th
Opp-adjusted defense
36th
Offensive EPA/play
78th
Defensive EPA/play
36th
Offensive success rate
85th
Explosiveness
60th
Defensive havoc
31th
Points per drive
81th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Georgia Tech2025OA +0.124 / -0.042similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate3812Ole Miss2021OA +0.044 / +0.010similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3793Louisville2017OA +0.148 / -0.016similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, passing offense3754Texas State2025OA +0.157 / -0.060similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, run defense3675Ole Miss2022OA +0.160 / -0.039similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, passing offense366

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ South Carolina31-17W-2.5W63.5U
2vs App State40-34W-19.5L58O
3vs Minnesota31-13W-7.5W51U
4@ Pittsburgh41-24W-7.5W50O
6vs Syracuse40-7W-8.5W59.5U
7vs Miami41-31W-3.5W57O
8vs Virginia27-31L-23.5L56.5O
9@ Georgia Tech42-46L-11.5L63.5O
10vs Campbell59-7W----
11vs Duke47-45W-13.5L50.5O
12@ Clemson20-31L+6.5L58.5U
13@ NC State20-39L-3.0L55O
18@ West Virginia10-30L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS5-5
Underdog ATS0-2
Last 5 ATS
LLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off60thRush Off84thRed Zone Off22th3rd Down Off93thPass Def30thRush Def50thRed Zone Def66th3rd Down Def36th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08579th+0.03041th
Red Zone-0.11422th-0.08066th
Third Down+0.45493th+0.21936th
No Garbage Time+0.09680th+0.04634th
First Half+0.15186th+0.09518th
Second Half+0.01555th-0.03964th
Early Downs+0.04881th-0.04453th
Passing Downs+0.08060th+0.11330th
Standard Downs+0.08784th-0.01750th
Goal to Go-0.12323th-0.28584th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.0%Rush 52.0%
Havoc/Game
12.7
Havoc Rate
17.0%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
16.6
Yards/Game
491.2
Pts/Drive
2.69
3rd Down%
48.4%
3&Out%
12.7%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — North Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorth CarolinaOpponents
Scoring
Points449355
Points / Game34.527.3
First Downs
Total320291
Rushing138113
Passing156150
Penalty2628
Rushing
Attempts498504
Yards2,4972,121
Yards / Carry5.04.2
Yards / Game192.1163.2
Touchdowns2821
Passing
Attempts460431
Completions292268
Completion %63.5%62.2%
Yards3,8893,136
Yards / Attempt8.57.3
Touchdowns2620
Interceptions1112
Passer Rating148.36133.05
Total Offense
Plays958935
Yards6,3865,257
Yards / Play6.75.6
Yards / Game491.2404.4
Punt Returns
Returns910
Yards114113
Average12.711.3
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns1419
Yards257485
Average18.425.5
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts4857
Yards1,8042,528
Average37.644.4
Interception Returns
Returns1211
Yards6481
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1016
Lost610
Penalties
Penalties9391
Yards862731
Yards / Game66.356.2
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3731:23
Third Downs
Attempts188184
Conversions9171
Conversion %48.4%38.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2033
Conversions917
Conversion %45.0%51.5%
Red Zone
Trips5955
Scores (TD + FG)5244
Score %88.1%80.0%
Touchdowns3631
TD %61.0%56.4%
Field Goals
Attempts2423
Made2218
Pct91.7%78.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5139
Made5139
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts54
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →