Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
MISS

Ole Miss

RebelsBalanced
Southeastern Conference10-3#28 (+5.73)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

79· BOverall
Offense
71· BRating
69· CPer play
87· BConsistency
91· A-Big plays
Defense
77· BRating
41· CPer play
22· DConsistency
Situational
32· DRed-zone O
35· DRed-zone D
75· B3rd down O
56· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.044
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.010
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.055
Defensive EPA/play
+0.007
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.9%
Def Success Rate
49.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.048
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.140
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.59

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.08
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.28
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.13
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.13
own return game
Return Defense
+0.80
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#28
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#11
AP 17 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#29
model 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#26
recruiting 2 spots higher
18 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Ole Miss ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
65th
Opp-adjusted defense
53th
Offensive EPA/play
70th
Defensive EPA/play
41th
Offensive success rate
89th
Explosiveness
92th
Defensive havoc
48th
Points per drive
77th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1North Carolina2023OA +0.046 / -0.032similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3802Louisville2017OA +0.148 / -0.016similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3583Toledo2017OA +0.070 / -0.010similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, pass defense3564Oklahoma2022OA +0.102 / +0.001similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, turnover rate3455UAB2022OA -0.012 / -0.013similar: TD drive rate, run defense, defensive EPA345

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Louisville43-24W-10.0W75.5U
2vs Austin Peay54-17W-34.5W69.5O
3vs Tulane61-21W-14.0W76.5O
5@ Alabama21-42L+14.5L79U
6vs Arkansas52-51W-5.5L66.5O
7@ Tennessee31-26W-3.0W82U
8vs LSU31-17W-9.0W76U
9@ Auburn20-31L+2.5L66U
10vs Liberty27-14W-9.5W67.5U
11vs Texas A&M29-19W+2.5W55.5U
12vs Vanderbilt31-17W-36.5L64U
13@ Mississippi State31-21W----
18vs Baylor7-21L-1.0L55U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
3-10
23.1%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS6-3
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS6-3
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off68thRush Off73thRed Zone Off32th3rd Down Off76thPass Def56thRush Def20thRed Zone Def35th3rd Down Def56th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06877th+0.03528th
Red Zone-0.11532th+0.03435th
Third Down+0.21076th+0.04756th
No Garbage Time+0.06173th+0.01240th
First Half+0.10584th-0.01956th
Second Half+0.02361th+0.08513th
Early Downs+0.04770th+0.09513th
Passing Downs+0.05568th-0.02256th
Standard Downs+0.07573th+0.06220th
Goal to Go+0.05968th+0.10932th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.2%Rush 57.8%
Havoc/Game
14.5
Havoc Rate
18.3%
TO Margin
+0.7
Explosive/G
18.7
Yards/Game
492.5
Pts/Drive
2.59
3rd Down%
38.2%
3&Out%
12.1%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — Ole Miss vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOle MissOpponents
Scoring
Points438321
Points / Game33.724.7
First Downs
Total339324
Rushing161143
Passing156143
Penalty2238
Rushing
Attempts588549
Yards2,8292,475
Yards / Carry4.84.5
Yards / Game217.6190.4
Touchdowns3325
Passing
Attempts429442
Completions286269
Completion %66.7%60.9%
Yards3,5732,990
Yards / Attempt8.36.8
Touchdowns2114
Interceptions711
Passer Rating149.52123.16
Total Offense
Plays1,017991
Yards6,4025,465
Yards / Play6.35.5
Yards / Game492.5420.4
Punt Returns
Returns817
Yards9376
Average11.64.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1851
Yards3811,050
Average21.220.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4352
Yards1,9092,293
Average44.444.1
Interception Returns
Returns117
Yards100160
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1321
Lost510
Penalties
Penalties11782
Yards978692
Yards / Game75.253.2
Time of Possession
Per Game27:1832:31
Third Downs
Attempts191186
Conversions7372
Conversion %38.2%38.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts4935
Conversions3117
Conversion %63.3%48.6%
Red Zone
Trips6952
Scores (TD + FG)5242
Score %75.4%80.8%
Touchdowns4132
TD %59.4%61.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2021
Made1513
Pct75.0%61.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5436
Made5136
Pct94.4%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts24
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →