Fourth Down Data
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MISS

Ole Miss

RebelsRun-Heavy
Southeastern Conference8-5#62 (+1.15)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

54· COverall
Offense
80· BRating
74· BPer play
74· BConsistency
87· BBig plays
Defense
35· DRating
26· DPer play
23· DConsistency
Situational
56· CRed-zone O
23· DRed-zone D
93· A3rd down O
29· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.160
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.039
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.070
Defensive EPA/play
+0.041
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.3%
Def Success Rate
47.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.029
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.076
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.55

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.88
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.18
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.70
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.69
own return game
Return Defense
-0.32
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#62
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#17
market 45 higher
Recruiting Rank
#22
recruiting 40 spots higher
21 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Ole Miss ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
91th
Opp-adjusted defense
33th
Offensive EPA/play
75th
Defensive EPA/play
27th
Offensive success rate
77th
Explosiveness
87th
Defensive havoc
66th
Points per drive
73th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Western Michigan2018OA +0.035 / -0.079similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, defensive success rate3952Louisville2017OA +0.148 / -0.016similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, takeaway rate3903Tennessee2025OA +0.148 / -0.011similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, rushing offense3844Texas State2024OA +0.027 / -0.004similar: run defense, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3805Arkansas2022OA +0.169 / -0.023similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA372

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Troy28-10W-21.5L57.5U
2vs Central Arkansas59-3W-37.0W64.5U
3@ Georgia Tech42-0W-17.0W63.5U
4vs Tulsa35-27W-21.5L65.5U
5vs Kentucky22-19W-7.0L53.5U
6@ Vanderbilt52-28W-17.0W60O
7vs Auburn48-34W-14.5L55.25O
8@ LSU20-45L+2.0L68U
9@ Texas A&M31-28W-2.0W54.5O
11vs Alabama24-30L+11.5W63.5U
12@ Arkansas27-42L-2.0L59U
13vs Mississippi State22-24L----
18vs Texas Tech25-42L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-8
38.5%
O/U Record
4-9
30.8%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS2-6
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS4-7
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off79thRush Off69thRed Zone Off57th3rd Down Off94thPass Def56thRush Def27thRed Zone Def23th3rd Down Def30th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06571th+0.00839th
Red Zone+0.04557th+0.12623th
Third Down+0.43794th+0.14330th
No Garbage Time+0.05771th+0.02931th
First Half+0.07071th+0.04027th
Second Half+0.06073th-0.02652th
Early Downs+0.00959th+0.01335th
Passing Downs+0.13179th-0.03256th
Standard Downs+0.03569th+0.02727th
Goal to Go+0.17777th-0.21176th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.7%Rush 61.3%
Havoc/Game
14.6
Havoc Rate
19.7%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
18.1
Yards/Game
496.2
Pts/Drive
2.55
3rd Down%
47.1%
3&Out%
14.2%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — Ole Miss vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOle MissOpponents
Scoring
Points435332
Points / Game33.525.5
First Downs
Total328277
Rushing176125
Passing127128
Penalty2524
Rushing
Attempts614516
Yards3,3342,184
Yards / Carry5.44.2
Yards / Game256.5168.0
Touchdowns3318
Passing
Attempts387431
Completions239274
Completion %61.8%63.6%
Yards3,1172,858
Yards / Attempt8.16.6
Touchdowns2222
Interceptions128
Passer Rating141.97132.41
Total Offense
Plays1,001947
Yards6,4515,042
Yards / Play6.45.3
Yards / Game496.2387.8
Punt Returns
Returns1611
Yards10471
Average6.56.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2524
Yards447536
Average17.922.3
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts4159
Yards1,7272,463
Average42.141.7
Interception Returns
Returns812
Yards3428
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles2120
Lost912
Penalties
Penalties8877
Yards821612
Yards / Game63.247.1
Time of Possession
Per Game26:2433:36
Third Downs
Attempts187197
Conversions8876
Conversion %47.1%38.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3536
Conversions1717
Conversion %48.6%47.2%
Red Zone
Trips6452
Scores (TD + FG)5146
Score %79.7%88.5%
Touchdowns4234
TD %65.6%65.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1720
Made1516
Pct88.2%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5137
Made5036
Pct98.0%97.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts54
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →