Fourth Down Data
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TXST

Texas State

BobcatsBalanced
Pac-12 Conference8-5#48 (+2.55)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

64· COverall
Offense
81· BRating
80· BPer play
80· BConsistency
65· CBig plays
Defense
47· CRating
44· CPer play
75· BConsistency
Situational
54· CRed-zone O
33· DRed-zone D
61· C3rd down O
25· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.027
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.004
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.076
Defensive EPA/play
+0.007
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.6%
Def Success Rate
43.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.070
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.004
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.84

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.15
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.11
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.18
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.13
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#48
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#15
market 33 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
model 32 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Texas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
78th
Opp-adjusted defense
48th
Offensive EPA/play
81th
Defensive EPA/play
45th
Offensive success rate
83th
Explosiveness
66th
Defensive havoc
84th
Points per drive
90th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1USC2017OA +0.017 / +0.044similar: passing offense, run defense, havoc rate4022Missouri2017OA +0.143 / -0.049similar: run defense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3843Miami2023OA +0.054 / +0.007similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, takeaway rate3824Ole Miss2022OA +0.160 / -0.039similar: run defense, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3805Texas2026OA +0.032 / -0.028similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, TD drive rate370

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Lamar34-27W-32.5L60.5O
2vs UTSA49-10W0.0L59.5U
3vs Arizona State28-31L----
5@ Sam Houston39-40L-8.0L55.5O
6@ Troy38-17W----
7vs Arkansas State41-9W-14.5W64U
8@ Old Dominion14-24L-10.0L61.5U
10vs Louisiana17-23L----
11@ UL Monroe38-17W-7.0W49O
12vs Southern Miss58-3W-26.5W55.5O
13vs Georgia State44-52L-1.0W61O
14@ South Alabama45-38W----
19vs North Texas30-28W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS3-5
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS6-6
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off58thRush Off84thRed Zone Off54th3rd Down Off62thPass Def31thRush Def52thRed Zone Def34th3rd Down Def25th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08681th+0.01637th
Red Zone+0.03054th+0.08134th
Third Down+0.15462th+0.19725th
No Garbage Time+0.08781th+0.01342th
First Half+0.12488th+0.02436th
Second Half+0.03958th+0.00848th
Early Downs+0.03875th-0.06264th
Passing Downs+0.06658th+0.06731th
Standard Downs+0.09684th-0.01652th
Goal to Go-0.00047th+0.01345th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.8%Rush 55.2%
Havoc/Game
15.2
Havoc Rate
21.9%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
16.5
Yards/Game
476.9
Pts/Drive
2.84
3rd Down%
45.6%
3&Out%
8.5%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Texas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTexas StateOpponents
Scoring
Points475319
Points / Game36.524.5
First Downs
Total339256
Rushing157101
Passing161126
Penalty2129
Rushing
Attempts528478
Yards2,7071,859
Yards / Carry5.13.9
Yards / Game208.2143.0
Touchdowns2724
Passing
Attempts429401
Completions299230
Completion %69.7%57.4%
Yards3,4932,790
Yards / Attempt8.17.0
Touchdowns3113
Interceptions149
Passer Rating155.41122.01
Total Offense
Plays957879
Yards6,2004,649
Yards / Play6.55.3
Yards / Game476.9357.6
Punt Returns
Returns211
Yards3515
Average16.75.0
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2712
Yards583225
Average21.618.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3963
Yards1,4452,658
Average37.142.2
Interception Returns
Returns914
Yards120170
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1923
Lost99
Penalties
Penalties8882
Yards834632
Yards / Game64.248.6
Time of Possession
Per Game31:1228:48
Third Downs
Attempts171184
Conversions7868
Conversion %45.6%37.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2328
Conversions1515
Conversion %65.2%53.6%
Red Zone
Trips5243
Scores (TD + FG)4336
Score %82.7%83.7%
Touchdowns3424
TD %65.4%55.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1920
Made1518
Pct78.9%90.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5637
Made5437
Pct96.4%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts51
Made50
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →