Fourth Down Data
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USC

USC

TrojansBalanced
Big Ten Conference11-3#33 (+9.65)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

75· BOverall
Offense
66· CRating
74· BPer play
86· BConsistency
62· CBig plays
Defense
77· BRating
55· CPer play
61· CConsistency
Situational
24· DRed-zone O
91· A-Red-zone D
73· B3rd down O
69· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.017
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.044
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.048
Defensive EPA/play
-0.032
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.9%
Def Success Rate
44.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.080
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.058
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.38

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.17
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.56
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.76
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.11
own return game
Return Defense
-0.13
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#33
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#12
AP 21 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#6
recruiting 27 spots higher
51 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where USC ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
60th
Opp-adjusted defense
63th
Offensive EPA/play
74th
Defensive EPA/play
56th
Offensive success rate
86th
Explosiveness
62th
Defensive havoc
81th
Points per drive
71th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas State2024OA +0.027 / -0.004similar: passing offense, run defense, havoc rate4022UTSA2022OA +0.068 / -0.038similar: havoc rate, pass defense, passing offense3723Arkansas State2017OA -0.029 / +0.016similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, passing offense3694Miami2023OA +0.054 / +0.007similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, havoc rate3585App State2023OA +0.064 / -0.010similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, offensive EPA355

2017 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Western Michigan49-31W+10.0L65U
2vs Stanford42-24W-3.5W54.5O
3vs Texas27-24W-17.0L66.5U
4@ California30-20W-17.0L62.5U
5@ Washington State27-30L-4.5L59U
6vs Oregon State38-10W-32.5L58U
7vs Utah28-27W-13.5L51.5O
8@ Notre Dame14-49L+4.0L61.5O
9@ Arizona State48-17W-5.5W57.5O
10vs Arizona49-35W-6.5W76O
11@ Colorado38-24W-14.0P61.5O
12vs UCLA28-23W-14.5L69.5U
14vs Stanford31-28W-3.5L58O
18@ Ohio State7-24L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-9-1
25.0%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS3-7
Underdog ATS0-2
Last 5 ATS
WWPLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off77thRush Off63thRed Zone Off24th3rd Down Off74thPass Def44thRush Def56thRed Zone Def92th3rd Down Def70th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04774th-0.03153th
Red Zone-0.10524th-0.27892th
Third Down+0.12274th-0.15270th
No Garbage Time+0.04070th-0.02854th
First Half-0.03047th-0.06158th
Second Half+0.12692th+0.00342th
Early Downs+0.00465th-0.02248th
Passing Downs+0.11077th-0.00844th
Standard Downs+0.01463th-0.04556th
Goal to Go-0.18424th+0.14524th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.5%Rush 52.5%
Havoc/Game
15.7
Havoc Rate
21.7%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
16.5
Yards/Game
484.1
Pts/Drive
2.38
3rd Down%
41.1%
3&Out%
14.0%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 14 games — USC vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUSCOpponents
Scoring
Points456366
Points / Game32.626.1
First Downs
Total340282
Rushing134122
Passing192130
Penalty1430
Rushing
Attempts543510
Yards2,5912,221
Yards / Carry4.84.4
Yards / Game185.1158.6
Touchdowns2920
Passing
Attempts491475
Completions309258
Completion %62.9%54.3%
Yards4,1863,318
Yards / Attempt8.57.0
Touchdowns2622
Interceptions1316
Passer Rating146.73121.54
Total Offense
Plays1,034985
Yards6,7775,539
Yards / Play6.65.6
Yards / Game484.1395.6
Punt Returns
Returns2119
Yards229181
Average10.99.5
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns4048
Yards9011,156
Average22.524.1
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5671
Yards2,2893,003
Average40.942.3
Interception Returns
Returns1613
Yards209195
Touchdowns32
Fumbles
Fumbles2120
Lost149
Penalties
Penalties10794
Yards975784
Yards / Game69.656.0
Time of Possession
Per Game30:5529:05
Third Downs
Attempts190207
Conversions7874
Conversion %41.1%35.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2727
Conversions1215
Conversion %44.4%55.6%
Red Zone
Trips5952
Scores (TD + FG)4337
Score %72.9%71.2%
Touchdowns3427
TD %57.6%51.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1723
Made1215
Pct70.6%65.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5943
Made5843
Pct98.3%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts13
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →