Fourth Down Data
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APP

App State

MountaineersBalanced
Sun Belt Conference9-5#48 (+2.82)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

65· COverall
Offense
79· BRating
79· BPer play
79· BConsistency
87· BBig plays
Defense
49· CRating
65· CPer play
61· CConsistency
Situational
66· CRed-zone O
63· CRed-zone D
76· B3rd down O
51· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.064
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.010
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.096
Defensive EPA/play
-0.032
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.2%
Def Success Rate
45.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.128
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.057
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.67

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.22
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.18
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.52
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.02
own return game
Return Defense
+0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#48
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#43
market 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
model 28 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where App State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
76th
Opp-adjusted defense
46th
Offensive EPA/play
80th
Defensive EPA/play
65th
Offensive success rate
79th
Explosiveness
87th
Defensive havoc
77th
Points per drive
80th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UTSA2022OA +0.068 / -0.038similar: run defense, offensive EPA, havoc rate3752UCLA2020OA +0.029 / +0.008similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3713Memphis2019OA +0.169 / -0.025similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3594Fresno State2020OA +0.020 / -0.012similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense3575Oklahoma2023OA +0.095 / +0.041similar: havoc rate, passing offense, run defense356

2023 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Gardner-Webb45-24W-24.5L51.5O
2@ North Carolina34-40L+19.5W58O
3vs East Carolina43-28W-9.5W48O
4@ Wyoming19-22L+3.0P43U
5@ UL Monroe41-40W-13.5L50.75O
7vs Coastal Carolina24-27L----
8@ Old Dominion21-28L-6.5L54U
9vs Southern Miss48-38W-17.0L55O
10vs Marshall31-9W-3.5W55U
11@ Georgia State42-14W+2.0W60.5U
12@ James Madison26-23W+9.0W56U
13vs Georgia Southern55-27W-8.5W63O
14@ Troy23-49L+5.0L53.25O
16vs Miami (OH)13-9W-6.5L41.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-7-1
46.2%
O/U Record
7-7
50.0%
Straight Up
9-5
64.3%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS3-6
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off90thRush Off66thRed Zone Off66th3rd Down Off76thPass Def25thRush Def79thRed Zone Def64th3rd Down Def52th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.09481th-0.01456th
Red Zone+0.07066th-0.07364th
Third Down+0.31576th+0.16552th
No Garbage Time+0.09179th-0.02260th
First Half+0.06464th-0.03469th
Second Half+0.12389th+0.00850th
Early Downs-0.00461th-0.08876th
Passing Downs+0.23390th+0.12525th
Standard Downs+0.02666th-0.08579th
Goal to Go+0.32893th+0.10239th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.9%Rush 53.1%
Havoc/Game
14.0
Havoc Rate
20.7%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
18.1
Yards/Game
445.6
Pts/Drive
2.67
3rd Down%
42.0%
3&Out%
12.7%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 14 games — App State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatApp StateOpponents
Scoring
Points465378
Points / Game33.227.0
First Downs
Total333278
Rushing122134
Passing181125
Penalty3019
Rushing
Attempts534502
Yards2,4082,498
Yards / Carry4.55.0
Yards / Game172.0178.4
Touchdowns2328
Passing
Attempts472422
Completions300258
Completion %63.6%61.1%
Yards3,8302,804
Yards / Attempt8.16.6
Touchdowns3415
Interceptions1015
Passer Rating151.25121.57
Total Offense
Plays1,006924
Yards6,2385,302
Yards / Play6.25.7
Yards / Game445.6378.7
Punt Returns
Returns213
Yards3763
Average18.54.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2735
Yards604676
Average22.419.3
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5466
Yards2,1072,772
Average39.042.0
Interception Returns
Returns1510
Yards14948
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles3015
Lost1210
Penalties
Penalties6295
Yards582870
Yards / Game41.662.1
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3528:41
Third Downs
Attempts188179
Conversions7972
Conversion %42.0%40.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2920
Conversions188
Conversion %62.1%40.0%
Red Zone
Trips5951
Scores (TD + FG)5142
Score %86.4%82.4%
Touchdowns3630
TD %61.0%58.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2218
Made1914
Pct86.4%77.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5442
Made5440
Pct100.0%95.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts56
Made03
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →