Fourth Down Data
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FRES

Fresno State

BulldogsBalanced
Pac-12 Conference3-3#80 (-1.78)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

38· DOverall
Offense
67· CRating
77· BPer play
63· CConsistency
50· CBig plays
Defense
40· CRating
46· CPer play
88· BConsistency
Situational
36· DRed-zone O
72· BRed-zone D
70· B3rd down O
2· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.020
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.012
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.105
Defensive EPA/play
+0.039
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.8%
Def Success Rate
42.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.067
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.034
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.56

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.57
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.87
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.74
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.16
own return game
Return Defense
-0.79
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#80
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#33
market 47 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Fresno State ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
69th
Opp-adjusted defense
40th
Offensive EPA/play
77th
Defensive EPA/play
47th
Offensive success rate
63th
Explosiveness
50th
Defensive havoc
89th
Points per drive
73th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UTSA2022OA +0.068 / -0.038similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, offensive EPA3872UTSA2023OA -0.019 / -0.006similar: offensive success rate, pass defense, TD drive rate3623App State2023OA +0.064 / -0.010similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense3564USC2017OA +0.017 / +0.044similar: passing offense, rushing offense, TD drive rate3505Oklahoma2023OA +0.095 / +0.041similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, pass defense339

2020 Schedule & Results

6 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
8vs Hawai'i19-34L+2.5W58.5U
9vs Colorado State38-17W----
10@ UNLV40-27W-11.0W58O
11@ Utah State35-16W-10.0W55.5U
14@ Nevada26-37L+7.0L58.75O
15@ New Mexico39-49L-13.5L57O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-3
50.0%
O/U Record
3-3
50.0%
Straight Up
3-3
50.0%
Home ATS1-1
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off94thRush Off47thRed Zone Off36th3rd Down Off71thPass Def46thRush Def41thRed Zone Def73th3rd Down Def2th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.10380th+0.04740th
Red Zone-0.05836th-0.10573th
Third Down+0.21071th+0.5372th
No Garbage Time+0.10679th+0.05337th
First Half+0.27295th+0.11719th
Second Half-0.06827th-0.02063th
Early Downs-0.02641th-0.04871th
Passing Downs+0.30294th+0.06646th
Standard Downs-0.00347th+0.03441th
Goal to Go+0.22576th-0.16477th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 53.4%Rush 46.6%
Havoc/Game
16.8
Havoc Rate
22.7%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
18.7
Yards/Game
479.3
Pts/Drive
2.56
3rd Down%
43.2%
3&Out%
10.3%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 6 games — Fresno State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatFresno StateOpponents
Scoring
Points197180
Points / Game32.830.0
First Downs
Total146117
Rushing4660
Passing9150
Penalty97
Rushing
Attempts216244
Yards7381,274
Yards / Carry3.45.2
Yards / Game123.0212.3
Touchdowns1214
Passing
Attempts248176
Completions15898
Completion %63.7%55.7%
Yards2,1381,306
Yards / Attempt8.67.4
Touchdowns148
Interceptions54
Passer Rating150.72128.47
Total Offense
Plays464420
Yards2,8762,580
Yards / Play6.26.1
Yards / Game479.3430.0
Punt Returns
Returns77
Yards5568
Average7.99.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2132
Yards409728
Average19.522.8
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts2628
Yards9841,140
Average37.840.7
Interception Returns
Returns45
Yards5434
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles710
Lost56
Penalties
Penalties3238
Yards272320
Yards / Game45.353.3
Time of Possession
Per Game31:3828:22
Third Downs
Attempts8897
Conversions3847
Conversion %43.2%48.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts139
Conversions85
Conversion %61.5%55.6%
Red Zone
Trips2826
Scores (TD + FG)2421
Score %85.7%80.8%
Touchdowns1815
TD %64.3%57.7%
Field Goals
Attempts69
Made67
Pct100.0%77.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2523
Made2121
Pct84.0%91.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →