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OU
Oklahoma
SoonersBalancedSoutheastern Conference10-3#11 (+8.07)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
92· A-Overall
Offense
94· ARating
95· APer play
90· A-Consistency
79· BBig plays
Defense
75· BRating
48· CPer play
85· BConsistency
Situational
74· BRed-zone O
87· BRed-zone D
90· A-3rd down O
65· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.095
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.041
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.157
Defensive EPA/play
+0.005
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.4%
Def Success Rate
42.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.152
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.034
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.06
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.29
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.24
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.06
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#11
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#15
model 4 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#7
market 4 higher
Recruiting Rank
#10
recruiting 1 spots higher
54 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Oklahoma ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense88th
Opp-adjusted defense67th
Offensive EPA/play96th
Defensive EPA/play49th
Offensive success rate90th
Explosiveness80th
Defensive havoc76th
Points per drive96th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1UTSA2022OA +0.068 / -0.038similar: defensive success rate, run defense, offensive success rate3992Oklahoma State2017OA +0.215 / +0.003similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3923Baylor2024OA +0.032 / -0.011similar: run defense, passing offense, TD drive rate3694Utah2025OA +0.209 / +0.052similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, havoc rate3675Oregon2023OA +0.268 / +0.089similar: pass defense, havoc rate, offensive EPA363
2023 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Arkansas State | 73-0 | W | -35.5 | W | 58 | O |
| 2 | vs SMU | 28-11 | W | -13.5 | W | 70.5 | U |
| 3 | @ Tulsa | 66-17 | W | -27.5 | W | 60 | O |
| 4 | @ Cincinnati | 20-6 | W | -14.0 | P | 57.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Iowa State | 50-20 | W | -20.0 | W | 48.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Texas | 34-30 | W | +6.5 | W | 60.5 | O |
| 8 | vs UCF | 31-29 | W | -19.0 | L | 65 | U |
| 9 | @ Kansas | 33-38 | L | -10.0 | L | 65.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Oklahoma State | 24-27 | L | -6.0 | L | 61 | U |
| 11 | vs West Virginia | 59-20 | W | -12.5 | W | 58.5 | O |
| 12 | @ BYU | 31-24 | W | -24.0 | L | 57 | U |
| 13 | vs TCU | 69-45 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 18 | vs Arizona | 24-38 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5-1
58.3%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS6-4
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.148 | 94th | -0.014 | 57th |
| Red Zone | +0.107 | 75th | -0.182 | 87th |
| Third Down | +0.435 | 91th | +0.110 | 66th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.144 | 91th | +0.003 | 52th |
| First Half | +0.251 | 96th | +0.026 | 40th |
| Second Half | +0.033 | 64th | -0.060 | 76th |
| Early Downs | +0.101 | 96th | -0.108 | 83th |
| Passing Downs | +0.155 | 76th | +0.122 | 26th |
| Standard Downs | +0.144 | 96th | -0.097 | 84th |
| Goal to Go | +0.281 | 89th | -0.391 | 93th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 46.5%Rush 53.5%
Havoc/Game
15.2
Havoc Rate
20.7%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
16.6
Yards/Game
507.0
Pts/Drive
3.06
3rd Down%
49.2%
3&Out%
12.9%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 13 games — Oklahoma vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Oklahoma | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 542 | 305 |
| Points / Game | 41.7 | 23.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 332 | 260 |
| Rushing | 130 | 95 |
| Passing | 174 | 141 |
| Penalty | 28 | 24 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 521 | 461 |
| Yards | 2,368 | 1,802 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.5 | 3.9 |
| Yards / Game | 182.2 | 138.6 |
| Touchdowns | 32 | 14 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 453 | 474 |
| Completions | 310 | 269 |
| Completion % | 68.4% | 56.8% |
| Yards | 4,223 | 3,260 |
| Yards / Attempt | 9.3 | 6.9 |
| Touchdowns | 34 | 18 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 20 |
| Passer Rating | 167.53 | 118.62 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 974 | 935 |
| Yards | 6,591 | 5,062 |
| Yards / Play | 6.8 | 5.4 |
| Yards / Game | 507.0 | 389.4 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 16 |
| Yards | 137 | 75 |
| Average | 6.5 | 4.7 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 24 |
| Yards | 442 | 432 |
| Average | 21.0 | 18.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 43 | 59 |
| Yards | 1,818 | 2,475 |
| Average | 42.3 | 41.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 9 |
| Yards | 344 | 102 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 19 | 13 |
| Lost | 11 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 88 | 76 |
| Yards | 760 | 622 |
| Yards / Game | 58.5 | 47.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:04 | 30:56 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 177 | 196 |
| Conversions | 87 | 61 |
| Conversion % | 49.2% | 31.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 34 |
| Conversions | 13 | 18 |
| Conversion % | 68.4% | 52.9% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 67 | 42 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 60 | 34 |
| Score % | 89.6% | 81.0% |
| Touchdowns | 46 | 22 |
| TD % | 68.7% | 52.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 27 |
| Made | 15 | 21 |
| Pct | 71.4% | 77.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 69 | 27 |
| Made | 69 | 26 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 96.3% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 8 |
| Made | 0 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.