Fourth Down Data
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UTAH

Utah

UtesRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference11-2#9 (+22.35)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

93· AOverall
Offense
93· ARating
98· A+Per play
95· AConsistency
95· ABig plays
Defense
88· BRating
65· CPer play
78· BConsistency
Situational
98· A+Red-zone O
75· BRed-zone D
96· A3rd down O
73· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.209
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.052
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.220
Defensive EPA/play
-0.060
lower = better
Off Success Rate
52.4%
Def Success Rate
43.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.280
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.046
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.38

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.85
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.63
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.18
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#9
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#14
model 5 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#8
market 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#36
model 27 spots higher
12 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Utah ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
98th
Opp-adjusted defense
72th
Offensive EPA/play
99th
Defensive EPA/play
66th
Offensive success rate
97th
Explosiveness
96th
Defensive havoc
81th
Points per drive
98th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Kansas State2023OA +0.110 / +0.053similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, TD drive rate4432Oregon2024OA +0.060 / +0.016similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3703Oklahoma2023OA +0.095 / +0.041similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, havoc rate3664Oregon2023OA +0.268 / +0.089similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, offensive success rate3665UCF2018OA +0.057 / +0.006similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA363

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ UCLA43-10W-5.5W49.5O
2vs Cal Poly63-9W-42.5W53.5O
3@ Wyoming31-6W-23.5W47U
4vs Texas Tech10-34L-3.5L57.5U
5@ West Virginia48-14W-24.0W49.5O
7vs Arizona State42-10W-9.5W44O
8@ BYU21-24L-4.5L49U
9vs Colorado53-7W-14.0W49O
10vs Cincinnati45-14W-10.5W57.5O
12@ Baylor55-28W-9.5W60.5O
13vs Kansas State51-47W-9.5L58.5O
14@ Kansas31-21W----
19vs Nebraska44-22W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-4
69.2%
O/U Record
9-4
69.2%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS9-4
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
WWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off91thRush Off100thRed Zone Off99th3rd Down Off97thPass Def59thRush Def54thRed Zone Def76th3rd Down Def73th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.20898th-0.03057th
Red Zone+0.32299th-0.12576th
Third Down+0.49397th-0.05773th
No Garbage Time+0.21098th-0.05463th
First Half+0.19495th-0.09679th
Second Half+0.22498th+0.03533th
Early Downs+0.12596th-0.01147th
Passing Downs+0.21391th-0.05359th
Standard Downs+0.205100th-0.01754th
Goal to Go+0.43696th-0.52497th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.3%Rush 60.7%
Havoc/Game
14.2
Havoc Rate
20.7%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
17.0
Yards/Game
482.9
Pts/Drive
3.38
3rd Down%
52.6%
3&Out%
15.0%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Utah vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUtahOpponents
Scoring
Points537246
Points / Game41.318.9
First Downs
Total331242
Rushing180122
Passing124101
Penalty2719
Rushing
Attempts575488
Yards3,4622,355
Yards / Carry6.04.8
Yards / Game266.3181.2
Touchdowns4118
Passing
Attempts373385
Completions234190
Completion %62.7%49.4%
Yards2,8162,312
Yards / Attempt7.56.0
Touchdowns2712
Interceptions515
Passer Rating147.36102.29
Total Offense
Plays948873
Yards6,2784,667
Yards / Play6.65.3
Yards / Game482.9359.0
Punt Returns
Returns246
Yards30427
Average12.74.5
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns1520
Yards202386
Average13.519.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3862
Yards1,6092,613
Average42.342.1
Interception Returns
Returns155
Yards36416
Touchdowns30
Fumbles
Fumbles178
Lost73
Penalties
Penalties7779
Yards624643
Yards / Game48.049.5
Time of Possession
Per Game30:4829:12
Third Downs
Attempts175188
Conversions9265
Conversion %52.6%34.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2538
Conversions1621
Conversion %64.0%55.3%
Red Zone
Trips5931
Scores (TD + FG)5425
Score %91.5%80.6%
Touchdowns4717
TD %79.7%54.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1516
Made1112
Pct73.3%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts7126
Made6826
Pct95.8%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts14
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →