Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
UCF

UCF

KnightsRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference12-1#16 (+8.44)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

88· BOverall
Offense
95· ARating
97· A+Per play
95· AConsistency
98· A+Big plays
Defense
71· BRating
54· CPer play
50· CConsistency
Situational
99· A+Red-zone O
96· ARed-zone D
99· A+3rd down O
55· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.057
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.006
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.175
Defensive EPA/play
-0.013
lower = better
Off Success Rate
52.2%
Def Success Rate
45.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
28.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.188
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.007
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.28

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.35
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.44
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.68
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.13
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#16
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#11
AP 5 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#56
model 40 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UCF ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
73th
Opp-adjusted defense
53th
Offensive EPA/play
98th
Defensive EPA/play
55th
Offensive success rate
97th
Explosiveness
99th
Defensive havoc
80th
Points per drive
98th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Utah2025OA +0.209 / +0.052similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3632Memphis2017OA +0.130 / +0.006similar: takeaway rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA3593Oklahoma2023OA +0.095 / +0.041similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, TD drive rate3504Florida Atlantic2017OA +0.102 / -0.065similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate3375Oregon2023OA +0.268 / +0.089similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA337

2018 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ UConn56-17W+7.5L57.5O
2vs South Carolina State38-0W----
4vs Florida Atlantic56-36W-14.0W74.5O
5vs Pittsburgh45-14W-13.0W65.5U
6vs SMU48-20W-25.0W73.5U
7@ Memphis31-30W-5.0L80.5U
8@ East Carolina37-10W-21.5W65.5U
10vs Temple52-40W-10.5W59O
11vs Navy35-24W-23.5L68U
12vs Cincinnati38-13W-7.5W60U
13@ South Florida38-10W-16.5W70U
14vs Memphis56-41W-1.0W65O
19vs LSU32-40L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-3
72.7%
O/U Record
4-7
36.4%
Straight Up
11-1
91.7%
Home ATS6-2
Away ATS2-1
Favorite ATS8-2
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off98thRush Off89thRed Zone Off100th3rd Down Off100thPass Def34thRush Def73thRed Zone Def97th3rd Down Def55th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.17398th-0.01052th
Red Zone+0.384100th-0.34197th
Third Down+0.563100th+0.01155th
No Garbage Time+0.17198th-0.01353th
First Half+0.12389th+0.01538th
Second Half+0.23399th-0.03866th
Early Downs+0.04068th-0.05063th
Passing Downs+0.34398th+0.08134th
Standard Downs+0.09289th-0.06473th
Goal to Go+0.40693th-0.56098th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.8%Rush 60.2%
Havoc/Game
17.5
Havoc Rate
21.7%
TO Margin
+1.1
Explosive/G
19.0
Yards/Game
522.7
Pts/Drive
3.28
3rd Down%
50.3%
3&Out%
17.9%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 13 games — UCF vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUCFOpponents
Scoring
Points562295
Points / Game43.222.7
First Downs
Total347307
Rushing174160
Passing141122
Penalty3225
Rushing
Attempts594618
Yards3,4482,890
Yards / Carry5.84.7
Yards / Game265.2222.3
Touchdowns4317
Passing
Attempts392413
Completions224229
Completion %57.1%55.4%
Yards3,3472,748
Yards / Attempt8.56.7
Touchdowns2916
Interceptions714
Passer Rating149.71117.34
Total Offense
Plays9861,031
Yards6,7955,638
Yards / Play6.95.5
Yards / Game522.7433.7
Punt Returns
Returns2013
Yards190124
Average9.59.5
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2752
Yards4891,038
Average18.120.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4760
Yards2,0422,676
Average43.444.6
Interception Returns
Returns147
Yards22765
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1619
Lost714
Penalties
Penalties97104
Yards848965
Yards / Game65.274.2
Time of Possession
Per Game25:2534:35
Third Downs
Attempts175215
Conversions8890
Conversion %50.3%41.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2030
Conversions1213
Conversion %60.0%43.3%
Red Zone
Trips5944
Scores (TD + FG)5333
Score %89.8%75.0%
Touchdowns4719
TD %79.7%43.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1424
Made1218
Pct85.7%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts7432
Made7431
Pct100.0%96.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts13
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →